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Amen Mark ! the real deal s' a hard lesson .........
fletch
Mark Brown wrote:
> From: RJP <jessing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> >Velocity and acceleration calculations even at their most basic levels can
> >reveal probable reversals with reasonable degree of accuracy. Such studies
> >(including Browian motion) can be successfully applied to commodity trading
> >and system development but how?The answer is indeed not a simple one and is
> >beyond the scope of most traders.
> >
> >I'm interested in comments and / or a discussion on how other traders have
> >applied velocity etc to commodity trading.
>
> RJP, super nice post! I both pleases me and worries me at the same time.
> Technology is exceedingly educational to say the least, it has in fact grown
> faster than I care to admit. Velocity is a very elusive critter, and when
> you catch it what do you do with it? Acceleration is even more elusive and
> much harder to sense of how to use once defined. Here is a good basic
> example of both: I was watching the SF years ago and it kept going up and up
> and up (did I mention it kept going up and up). It kept getting faster in
> its move up and faster, so I decided that I was going to get in and I did.
> Well I was just about to experience a good old fashioned lesson in trading
> with the obvious trend. If I was amazed by the move of the SF up then I was
> about to be even more impressed with the move it was about to make down
> against my position. It went down at twice the speed it went up! I was in
> shock, latter while running computer models. The program kept showing me
> that counter trend systems made the most money. Three time's as much as a
> trending system. I wouldn't hear of it I wasn't going to buy into that
> thinking no way. So I remained a average looser wannbe trader. who was
> working for a great real trader. Who was by definition a stand in front of
> the train counter trend trader! I give in one day when I went to see Peter
> Aan and I learned from him to accept my model and what it was telling me.
> He is a trending trader sure but he has a method and he sticks with it, he
> knows what he has found to work. We all need to learn this lesson.
>
> http://www.markbrown.com/thexfile.htm
>
> Mark Brown
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