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From: RJP <jessing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Velocity and acceleration calculations even at their most basic levels can
>reveal probable reversals with reasonable degree of accuracy. Such studies
>(including Browian motion) can be successfully applied to commodity trading
>and system development but how?The answer is indeed not a simple one and is
>beyond the scope of most traders.
>
>I'm interested in comments and / or a discussion on how other traders have
>applied velocity etc to commodity trading.
RJP, super nice post! I both pleases me and worries me at the same time.
Technology is exceedingly educational to say the least, it has in fact grown
faster than I care to admit. Velocity is a very elusive critter, and when
you catch it what do you do with it? Acceleration is even more elusive and
much harder to sense of how to use once defined. Here is a good basic
example of both: I was watching the SF years ago and it kept going up and up
and up (did I mention it kept going up and up). It kept getting faster in
its move up and faster, so I decided that I was going to get in and I did.
Well I was just about to experience a good old fashioned lesson in trading
with the obvious trend. If I was amazed by the move of the SF up then I was
about to be even more impressed with the move it was about to make down
against my position. It went down at twice the speed it went up! I was in
shock, latter while running computer models. The program kept showing me
that counter trend systems made the most money. Three time's as much as a
trending system. I wouldn't hear of it I wasn't going to buy into that
thinking no way. So I remained a average looser wannbe trader. who was
working for a great real trader. Who was by definition a stand in front of
the train counter trend trader! I give in one day when I went to see Peter
Aan and I learned from him to accept my model and what it was telling me.
He is a trending trader sure but he has a method and he sticks with it, he
knows what he has found to work. We all need to learn this lesson.
http://www.markbrown.com/thexfile.htm
Mark Brown
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