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At 08:48 PM 8/31/98, Tony Haas wrote:
>IMichael,
>
>>In a mechanical model it actually works really well going back several
>>decades 605 to 70% of the time.
>
>Okay, proove it! Where are the system stats? How has it performed over
>the last decade? You're throwing numbers around without any proof.
It was based on a publication a few years ago, I think in Technical Analysis
or Futures magazine. I remember looking at the charts and being surprised
at the quality of some of the signals and the overall high win ratio. Worked
fairly well over many decades. It didn't work that well recently like the
last decade as I said. I'll search for it and let you know if I can find it
again.
>>there seems to be a whole pile of fundamental analysis that supports the
>theory as well.
>Again, prove it! To quote a famous phrase, "where's the beef?"
I gave the examples of the various markets world wide that were melting down
in the initial post. Seemed to be lots of evidence of fundamental weakness
in world currencies, stock markets, real estate, etc., that were posted here
recently.
>
>>As long as YOU don't end up like a piece of terd stuck on the down dip of
>the long term chart.
I agree that was bad spelling. I couldn't be bothered looking it up, not
being in my normal useage. Probably a poor choice of words too. It wasn't
intended to be an insult, just a slang expression from the boondocks, where
I come from.
>Oh, this is priceless! If you can't spell insults properly, then how can
>anyone trust your analysis. <LOL>
>>Money managers are a joke actually when you look at how few of them can
>>equal even the market.
>
>I agree with you on this one. One lemming is much the same as another.
>But you have not answered TJ's comment regarding money flows into 401K's
>and IRA's...ie, where is that money going if not eventually into stocks?
Recently into bonds, hence the lowest yield in history, and short term
bills, but the overall flow into stocks 'is slowing' apparently was the point.
>That money is locked up tighter than a tick on a bull's ass.
Dont know about that kind of tick, but it sounds worse than terd stuck on
the down dip of a long term chart. ;-)
>>Give us a lesson on the new economic paradigm you are talking about. How
>>does that relate to Price Earnings Ratios and how is it new actually? And by
>>the way, what does that word paradigm actually mean anyway?
>Bruce and TJ talked about it recently. I guess you missed that one, huh?
>And the last I heard, paradigm was in the dictionary, along with "terd"
>(sic) <still LOL>
Everybody in this bull run up has used the worn cliche the 'new paradigm'.
To me its just bull. Pure manure to justify grossly inflated PE ratios and
market caps.
>I have heard and read recently papers and articles by various economists
>discussing the relative ineffectiveness of P/E's for stock market valuation
>for the new global economy.
Tony, tell us you listen to and trust economists about stock market
valuations for the new global economy and I'll be more careful with my
spelling in future.
>>Can you explain what a fractal similarity is? And have you back-tested it?
That was supposed to be a joke.
>If you want to be an obnoxious, so be it. This list has plenty. But you
>don't need to browbeat listers
You're right Tony, I should really watch that more closely, if that's the
impression. It's just a style of argumentative writing, like a debate, not
to do with ego except the argument part, done mainly for mental stimulation
and entertainment.
I'm sorry TJ and others if I offended you. It was just the old cliche quote
about the new paradigm in the new world economic order and all that good
stuff and the fractal similarity part that I had trouble actually understanding.
Michael Paauwe
mpaauwe@xxxxxxxxxx
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