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RE: Russia - Problem - what problem?



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Felix;

The mark rallied as well said down because of its large bank exposure in
Russia but Friday it had a short covering rally and new buying started. My
people say the only reason the yen is showing strength is the ramblings of
change and due to an over sold temporary condition. That maybe but your
point about US rates dropping makes you wonder if a short or even a long
term trend change is occurring in the yen. The large rally in the mark
might indicate the Russian flu is almost over at least for our market.

Robert




At 11:01 AM 8/30/98 -0700, Brian Massey wrote:
>Felix,
>
>Strange strength in the Yen?  Or lack of it.  The Sep Yen was a huge laggard
>in the Futures on Fri?  Was there a sudden recovery somewhere else in some
>other market?
>
>How could there be (cash or other) without being reflected in the Futures
>markets?
>
>Brian.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From:	Felix TY [mailto:felixty@xxxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent:	Sunday, August 30, 1998 5:10 PM
>To:	omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
>Subject:	Re: Russia - Problem - what problem?
>
>>  Michael,
>>
>>  The only possible reason I can think of is The Federal Reserve will be
>lowering
>>  the interest rate soon. And now being preempted by the smart money. Look
>at Yen
>> sudden recovery because all its bad news has been discounted,almost no
>more worse
>> news to go for the immediate future, the shorts are starting to cover,be
>it hedge
>> fund
>> managers, central bank and the major international banks. Since this move
>will come
>> as a surprise to the markets (public at large). But not the smart money.
>>
>> Anyway , a lower US rate and currency will be a great helping hand and
>breathing
>> space for all countries in crisis in the world right now and at the same
>time help
>> support US market (and also lower cost of doing business by US companies)
>too!
>
>> So, this is a very rational decision.
>
>> Felix
>
>
>
>> > The US dollar started DOWN in earnest this past two days. Notice the
>strange
>> > strength in the JY. Was it the banks manipulating again or a fundamental
>> > shift in the intermediate term world wide sentiment on the US dollar?
>> >
>> > Every country's currency has been crapping, except America, yet today
>the
>> > USD is dropping.  Why is that?
>
>
>
>