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Hi Adrian;
Couple of things, first your crops are going to be Huge in corn, wheat and
soybeans. Go to the CBOT web page
to see graphs on the size compared to other years. Second European wheat is
cheaper than our corn with a strong dollar others countries grains become
cheaper than ours for exports. Third our carryover stocks for grains are
big with the exception being wheat but this years crop wiped out those
worries. The drought in Texas hurt cotton and probably hay. In Florida if
anything the fires would hurt its produce and orange groves. The last USDA
indicated very little damage to the midwest crops due to excessive rain.
The supply demand tables tell us we got more supply than demand and the
adjuster to this becomes price as it has gone down and will most likely go
lower up until harvest. Humans and animals need protein, hay has very
little more starch than anything. Cattle can live on hay that and grass but
you can't eat their meat until you finish them out on corn. So when you
look at corn, wheat and soybeans a lot of the if not all is based on the
protein content as a world needed food source. I guess wheat being an
exception is almost to rich to use as a feed grain without mixing it with
other grain products.
Robert
At 02:02 AM 8/15/98 -0500, Adrian Muir wrote:
>I'm not a trader, but I am a farmer and I pay close enough attention to
the weather to know which way the wind is blowing. I don't understand how
feed can be cheap when there's a national call for hay, the fires in the
west, floods in the midwest, fires in FL, and drought in the southwest have
basically made this a breakeven year at best for the producer. What don't
I I see here?
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Neal T. Weintraub [SMTP:thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 10:50 PM
>To: Robert W Cummings
>Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: 99 CORN & OATS
>
>the rationale behind your trade requires deep pockets There is nothing that
>tells you to be a buyer. If you are so convinced buy options and forget
>about the trade for now.
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Robert W Cummings <robertwc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 5:52 PM
>Subject: 99 CORN & OATS
>
>
>>
>>
>>Bought 99 corn and oats as the first step for fundamental reasons called to
>>cheap to plant . Plus all the bad news the bears can stand. I do expect to
>>buy more later at cheaper levels but so many bears should cause some short
>>covering rallies before I do, maybe. Supply has overcome demand but with
>>the government stocks program and the server weather patterns hopefully
>>prices will be higher in the future. I use options to protect and reduce
>>the inherent time premiums buying so far out. Been my experience grain
>>markets bottom before their supposed to, the norm will be harvest time.
>>This not a recommendation to anybody but this is a trading list and just
>>another idea only. Requires patience and capital and the rule is nobody
>>knows what cheap is only the market and it ain't saying.... *S*. I'm just
>>going in the grain business joining the farmer but without a farm and all
>>the work he has to do as well. This same idea applies to meat because of
>>cheap feed but will be shorter has more volatility and timing has to be
>>more precise. Remember don't try this at home is just food for thought.
>>Anybody got ant ideas on the other market opportunities I would love to
>>hear can't follow them all.
>>
>>Robert
>
>
>
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