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While it may be premature to suggest a major decline in the dollar is imminent,
it is certainly not premature to be watching the dollar carefully for signs of a
major reversal. When (not if) the dollar does reverse course, we will see major
reversals in bonds, equities, and all those dollar denominated commodities -
might even see weakness in same leading into a dollar reversal. However, while
the fundamentals may tell us to keep an eye out for a reversal, I would look to
the charts to confirm such reversals. Also I don't think it would take a major
stretch to put this into a system using a combination of currencies including
yen and mark, DJ utilities (or bonds if you prefer), and several key commodities
including copper, oil and soybeans. Personally, I have both mark and yen
indicated lower before a bottom is reached.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>; Al Witko <awitko@xxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, August 13, 1998 9:32 PM
Subject: Re: Just system traders?
>Well, maybe if you are a system trader you might wake up one day and see a
>sharp decline in the US dollar. Oh, You do not care who is meeting with who.
>The system will take care of all that.Well, for those of you who use
>experience, intuition, and fundamental analysis, you can bet that Rubin did
>not meet with Miyazawa in order to discuss how to punch up spreads on trade
>station. No I do not know how to program this into a system , but I might
>consider taking off some of my currency positions. Mr. Rubin made his
>millions using money mangement and considering the odds on big trades. This
>is from the Sunday NY Times. No, he did not back test.
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