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Randomness is a phenomenom that humans use to describe behavior of complex
functions that cannot be described very easily.
Sometimes referred to as a market.
Robert
At 10:22 PM 8/4/98 +0100, Mark wrote:
>With regards to Bob Fulks answer, Randomness is a phenomenom that us
humans use
>to describe behaviour of complex functions that cannot be described very
easily,
>it is a myth, think about this. How easy is it to make computers or
machines to
>create random numbers, most computer based random number generators use some
>inherant algorithm or very simply some calculation based upon the working
of its
>system clock, meaning? it is very very difficult to get machines or
computers to
>recreate randomness. How many lottery machines around the world have had
problems
>with this, lots. The markets are no more fractal than my backside is a cream
>bun, the markets can be predicted and within the next few years system
designers
>will be using such methods, how do I know, I have seen one in action,
true. I am
>not going to mention any names or tell porkies about this, it is fact. I
agree
>with the Omega man ( the artist formerly known as trader J ) is spot on, raw
>computing power and intelligent sytem design that automates buy sell
decisions
>will have an edge far more superior than us mere mortals, as for open
outcry, its
>finished, technology will win, why? because of hive action, that is the
masses
>will demand it and anyone who is foollish enough to stay behind will lose.
>Anyway sorry for rambling
>
>Mark Savage
>
>
>Bob Fulks wrote:
>
>> At 3:33 PM -0400 8/3/98, Neil Harrington wrote:
>>
>> >I don't disagree with your observations, but those seem to be conflicting
>> >pieces of information. If the markets have a truly fractal nature, then
>> >systems should perform similarly in different time frames (unless
commission
>> >and slippage become too significant in smaller time frames).
>> >
>> >Does anyone have any thoughts on that apparent paradox?
>>
>> At 6:01 PM -0400 8/3/98, Steven Buss wrote:
>>
>> >Suffice to say that the markets are fractal. But I have no idea whether
>> >different timeframes have PRECISELY the same structure. It seems to me
that
>> >it would be surprising if they had PRECISELY the same structure. Maybe
the
>> >question is really whether they have a different enough structure to take
>> >into consideration for trading. The good news is that this is an
empirical
>> >question.
>>
>> I agree that most markets have fractal characteristics but they also have
>> characteristics unique to different time frames.
>>
>> For example, look at a daily chart of the S&P cash index. You can easily
>> see that local lows tend to occur about 10 bars apart.
>>
>> Now look at a 45 min chart of the same market (9 times the resolution). Do
>> lows occur 10 bars apart? Nope. More like 45 bars apart which is near the
>> same dates/times they appear on the daily chart.
>>
>> I think random behavior tends to be fractal and most tradable behavior
>> tends to be time related. So trading systems probably have to be designed
>> with a specific time compression in mind.
>>
>> Bob Fulks
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