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Thanks for your response.
I wish more people were this direct. People tend to think all they need is
software and a system and they are on their way to Easy Street with Easy
Language. Hey, maybe that could be a new slogan...Easy Street with Easy
Language.
You know when you consider that the Vanguard Funds are up nearly 100% in
three years, it is hard to understand why people even fall prey to commodex.
The Merc has a course called before you trade. But I can tell you this.
Anyone with less than 20,000 in trading cash should not be in Futures.
Period. End of Story. I am tired of hearing about people saving $7500, then
buying software for $3500 and using the balance to trade.
And anyone with more than $10,000 in credit card debt can never trader
themselves out of debt.
Take the $7500.00 and buy a vending route.
-----Original Message-----
From: Conrad Bowers <cpbow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, August 02, 1998 3:23 PM
Subject: Trading as a way to financial success (a reply)
>Neal T. Weintraub wrote:
>>
>>
>> wHAT DO YOU THINK OF TRADING AS A WAY TO FINANCIAL SUCCESS.
>> PLEASE POST YOUR RESPONSE TO THE LIST.
>>
>
> For a minute I thought this was a joke (in light of my very recent
>post) but I believe it's not so here goes:
>
> I think you have to have a method that actually makes money and the
>capital to withstand the drawdowns that will occur before you succeed.
>That makes it not a very good way to go for someone of limited means or
>anyone who is emotionally attached to money. The brochures that say,
>we have a great system, and then show it on 20 commodities, often go on
>to say, "you can trade this on a more limited portfolio with $5000".
>Even tho they may have been honest in their testing, I believe the
>chances of the smaller portfolio having acceptable results is much
>lower. Primarily because the drawdown numbers for a smaller portfolio
>will be more prone to being inaccurate or the portfolio "cherry picked".
>
> It's not the easy street it's made out to be either. Unless it's a
>small portion of your net worth and NOT your way of making a living,
>it's hard to see how it could not be anything but stressful to some
>degree.
>
> For many of us who have other careers, it can become a second job in
>itself, maybe even supplanting our original one. In effect my original
>goal to pay off some debts has become a goal to succeed in trading. And
>that goal has distracted me quite a bit from my first career. I can
>tell you why I don't like my current job, but was the transition to
>spending a lot of time on trading well thot out? Nope, it evolved. For
>those of us who seek to make a transition (or by default are making the
>transition) from our current career to trading as a means of making a
>living or being sucessful, maybe we should step back partway along the
>way and ask, was this the right thing to do?
>Even if it was a means to $ sucess for an individual with another
>career, it might not be right for them. I guess everyone has to ask
>themselves what success is.
>
> Also I think your emotions have to favor you being in it. If you have
>conflicting feelings about it, it's less likely you will succeed.
>Recently, I built up my small account from about 3K to 6K, patiently
>grinding out small losses and a few larger wins in options and
>mini-contracts. But a number of emotionally charged issues have come
>up, at times introducing frustration, discouragement, and even guilt
>into my thoughts. After being rigorous (perhaps too much so) about
>kicking back options that werent' making money, I suddenly stopped
>looking at options i had altogether, same with most potential new
>positions. What was going on? The only thing I can think of, is that
>my ambivilence about some of my decisions, including getting into
>trding, was being manifest by actions that might take me out of it. I
>used to scoff at some of the stuff in M. Douglas book about how you may
>defeat yourself - seemed crazy, why would anyone do that? But now, I
>think I've seen it in my own trading.
>
> In short then I think it is a way to financial success for a few people
>- The ones who either find a method and/or have the talent to succeed
>in this field. It's a low-probability route for someone who does not
>have a fair amount of capital already. I think its a way to financial
>success for someone who:
>
>1. has a positive expectation system or talent, and has confidence in
>it.
>
>2. has the capital to back that up.
>
>3. has a risk mgmt plan consisntent with 1+2.
>
>4. Doesn't have conflicting emotions about the money at risk; doesn't
>have conflicting emotions about other issues or people that are in any
>way impacted by the decision to trade.
>
>
>What % of people in this crazy arena do you think have all 4? For those
>it's a good way to financial success. For the rest, nope.
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