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Hi Tom and all -
Thanks so much for a possible solution to this "extend" problem. I have
asked the Omega technical dept many times without a clue, whereas you have
given me several possibilities. I'll check them out. Ah, love this
internet....
My e-mail was down for 1 1/2 days, so I got only yours and two other
messages. I had hoped to get a real rise out of the optimization guys on
this list. You see, I hate to admit it, but I too, have spent 10's of
thousands of hours trying every derivation of
optimization/systems/indicators out there, including neural networks, and
even stuff I've written myself in Turbo Pascal. What happens is that based
on the normal bell curve you get data skewed in one direction and are right
most of the time, but when the probabilities turn the other way (as they
always do eventually) the optimization is wrong most of the time...big
time. Over time, you are LUCKY to break even...but add human emotions and
most likely this "break even" senerio and results in a big loss.
How many times I have said to myself....and I'll bet almost everyone on
this list using opto stuff will say the same right now....."I'm so close to
finishing up this present (blank)".
It shows great promise. It's different this time. However, my account
return for the past year is break-even or negative. But that was BEFORE. I
can't wait to try out THIS new optimization approach.
The testing never ends. Simply because markets are always changing on any
time scale you wish to view....1 minute bars....15 min, daily, weekly,
monthly, etc. (trending vs: chopping)
In my "humble" opinion, I submit that one should find 2-3 LOOSLY fitting
indicators that work on all markets, and learn how they act in both
trending and chopping markets. THEN develop a timing method independant of
these indicators that is the MAIN source of recommendations. This "timing"
method is key and the source of successful trading.
The bottom line: To develop a so called "edge" you must come up with
something that is used by the minority at any particular time. All the
popular canned indicators are not unique and are used by the
majority....and are all based on price, and are usually optimized for some
particular time frame...poison.
Like you, I've studied Gann thoughly, Elliot, cycles, etc, etc. They are
all helpful as a base. As someone said here, you must take a combination of
what works for YOU, but be VERY flexible and willing to change with the
markets. THAT is the exact opposite of optimization.
Can I get some opto guys POed here? Let's hear about your successes in REAL
TIME with that stuff. I'm really curious if ANYONE has been able to pull it
off. I mean, just think of what's happening here? People actually believe
if they just optimize data on a computer (like millions of others) they
will make a fortune in commodities! HA! AND, if they buy one or all of
the many expensive programs/systems/indicators out there that will be
automatic success.
Here's the pattern: Most of these system/indicator vendors start out like
you and me. They have good intentions of simply finding a method, then
trading themselves to success. However, after many "breakthroughs" and
drawdowns, they realize that they may have to get a regular job again.
That's when the vendor thing begins. Ever notice how the NFA beats opto
warnings to death? The gutters are filled with carcusses of losers and
paper from the lawsuits. Do you realize how few (if any) vendors are
currently successful, real time traders? Some have a big winning year that
they harp about forever, but on balance, I'll bet most are career losers.
Most do not trade their current "systems" in real time...'cuz they know
better.
Take a look at the super stars of the industry. If you can make just 15-20%
per YEAR trading commodities, you are on a pedestal and will attract more
money than position limits will allow. Do you think an optimized program
(the easy way) is the answer?
My hat is off to anyone on this list who is currently testing ideas,
researching and trading real time. You are the real heros, not some vendor
who lives a lie.
BTW, Bill Cruz is really not a bad guy...quite a gentleman, in fact...I've
met him several times before and actually can thank him for producing a
program that gave me the ability to customize my own methods. However, I
wish Omega would take some time (or open a dept) to entertain ideas from
real traders that use this stuff daily. This "extend" feature is but one
thing I feel is needed. There are others, and are mainly human engineering
type improvements to make trading life easier. Also, a few major
restrictions in EL make it like "how can I fool this program to make it
think this and do what I want'? Too candy coated once you get through
the basics. O'well....better than charting by hand.
More later, maybe.
Tom Cathey
>
> This feature of future space or future plot capabilities has been asked
here
> several times, by myself and others. I have found methods of doing this.
> Patrick vibri@xxxxxxxxx (see info at) http://www.flash.net/~vibri
> has a method available. I have no idea how he does it.
> Another version by Clement schong@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx is available.
Both
> are for a fee.
> See Attached for a sample of an indicator system called Murrey Math being
> used with this method.
>
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