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> << I'd say the trend is up from July 1996.<g> >>
Not IMO. The end of 1996 was "trading range". The current trend started in
1997. If you want to see good trend lines - do a few P&F charts (1x3 for the
longer term trend - 4x12 tics for the shorter term trend).
> <<Didn't Warren Buffett just buy a load of zeros?>>
I think he bought about July-September. Good timing on his part.
> I started collecting data on the currencies and Long Bond off CNN in 1994...
Whoops - I forgot - I also follow the major currencies. And the XAU - and the
DJUA. They give you a perspective on what's happening with the bonds.
> << When I do it has to be impulsive...>>
That's the exact opposite of what I do. I'm pretty deliberate. I have the
markets I work in (not many) - and my rules - and I follow them. FWIW - I think
it's probably more important for a short term trader to do what I do than it is
for me to do it (because my downside potential isn't as large).
> BTW If you haven't studied options...
I know a bit about options - and used to trade them occasionally in the past -
but I don't much like them. It's hard enough to be right about market direction
without being right about the time in which something will happen. Plus - I
don't like markets which are less than zero sum games (options is a zero sum
game minus transaction costs). It's kind of like going to a casino - where the
house always wins over the long run (although individual players may come out
ahead in the short run).
FWIW - I took a look at the SPX options last week. I'm not an expert - but
there seemed to be so much premium in both the puts and calls that the only
people who are likely to make money are the premium sellers. I don't like to
sell covered calls - and selling naked is well byond my risk level. Robyn
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