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I have already written Randy direct. However, I received faxes from
Wilder's son for a while on various commodities, a very nice young man,
that I did not find sufficiently relative to trade. It is a beautiful book
to leave on the coffee table to confuse guests, however. There must be
something to it that is way over my head. I do incorporate other Wilder
indicators in my trading methodologies. I disagree that the entry is not
important, particularly if you are short target trading with several
contracts. I do agree that money management, exiting process is equally,
if not more, important.
Jerry
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> From: Tom Dyste <TomDyste@xxxxxxx>
> To: murpran@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Wilder's Delta Phenomenon
> Date: Thursday, January 01, 1998 8:40 AM
>
> Dear Randy,
>
> If you become a "Delta Phenomenon" trader you will basically become a
person
> who initiates new positions on trend changes of various degree, out of
> congestion or other standard, well documented old-time indications of
trend
> reversals.
>
> Before you go too deeply into Delta, do you know that you don't get
> everything you might desire to begin using Delta when you buy the book?
There
> was a service, used to be and maybe still is 200 USD per year for a
printout
> of the Delta turning point dates for a wide range of futures, and
statistical
> indications of their historical reliability and accuracy, plus a periodic
> commentary by Welles Wilder on the apparent best upcoming Delta
opportunities.
> If you become a devotee, this isn't very much money, but just wanted you
to be
> aware.
>
> If you are looking to Delta as a way for an undercapitalized part-time
> trader to make fantastic returns without the usual risks, you shall be
> disappointed.
>
> You might wish to become familiar with Bruce Babcock's scatheing
> denunciations of Delta, and also be aware that Mr. Babcock shows, to me
at
> least, a bias of fanatical, mystical, even religious proportions against
> anything fanatical, mystical or religious. Thus without transgressing
core
> dogma of "reality based trading" he cannot possibly approve of Delta.
> Nevertheless, his opinions and obervations had value for me. I have
purchased
> some of Bruce's work and never felt misused by him.
>
> Bottom line from me is, go ahead and get the Delta Phenomenon book if
the
> amount of money is insignificant to you. It is entertaining. If the
amount
> of money is significant, consider abandoning futures trading for a while
or
> paper trade extensively before placing your capital at risk.
>
> In accord with my own biases, I believe it doesn't matter too much what
gets
> you into a position, but it is largely money management and exit that
> determines your longevity and profitability. Thus, if there is a modicum
of
> market sense about your entries then there is the potential to do OK.
Delta
> perhaps meets this modest criterion. I bought the book and subscribed to
the
> service, but never applied the Delta information in my trading. I have
self-
> developed systems (some of which incorporate Welles' other ideas to
varying
> degrees) in which I have the required confidence to actually trade. I
buy
> lots of systems and stuff like Delta but have yet to apply any of it
"as-is."
> In Delta's instance, nothing at all transferred into actual trading
systems of
> mine.
>
> My forecast is that if you buy the book you will never use the
information.
> However, it is quite possible there are "Delta traders" raking all the
money
> into one big pile, unbeknownst to me, and you could maybe join them?
>
> I look forward to other posts on the Delta subject. However since I am
> newer to this list it may well be old stuff and not fit material. Also,
it is
> not directly TS/Omega related.
>
> Regards,
> Tom Dyste
> Wisconsin, USA
>
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