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Dear Randy,
If you become a "Delta Phenomenon" trader you will basically become a person
who initiates new positions on trend changes of various degree, out of
congestion or other standard, well documented old-time indications of trend
reversals.
Before you go too deeply into Delta, do you know that you don't get
everything you might desire to begin using Delta when you buy the book? There
was a service, used to be and maybe still is 200 USD per year for a printout
of the Delta turning point dates for a wide range of futures, and statistical
indications of their historical reliability and accuracy, plus a periodic
commentary by Welles Wilder on the apparent best upcoming Delta opportunities.
If you become a devotee, this isn't very much money, but just wanted you to be
aware.
If you are looking to Delta as a way for an undercapitalized part-time
trader to make fantastic returns without the usual risks, you shall be
disappointed.
You might wish to become familiar with Bruce Babcock's scatheing
denunciations of Delta, and also be aware that Mr. Babcock shows, to me at
least, a bias of fanatical, mystical, even religious proportions against
anything fanatical, mystical or religious. Thus without transgressing core
dogma of "reality based trading" he cannot possibly approve of Delta.
Nevertheless, his opinions and obervations had value for me. I have purchased
some of Bruce's work and never felt misused by him.
Bottom line from me is, go ahead and get the Delta Phenomenon book if the
amount of money is insignificant to you. It is entertaining. If the amount
of money is significant, consider abandoning futures trading for a while or
paper trade extensively before placing your capital at risk.
In accord with my own biases, I believe it doesn't matter too much what gets
you into a position, but it is largely money management and exit that
determines your longevity and profitability. Thus, if there is a modicum of
market sense about your entries then there is the potential to do OK. Delta
perhaps meets this modest criterion. I bought the book and subscribed to the
service, but never applied the Delta information in my trading. I have self-
developed systems (some of which incorporate Welles' other ideas to varying
degrees) in which I have the required confidence to actually trade. I buy
lots of systems and stuff like Delta but have yet to apply any of it "as-is."
In Delta's instance, nothing at all transferred into actual trading systems of
mine.
My forecast is that if you buy the book you will never use the information.
However, it is quite possible there are "Delta traders" raking all the money
into one big pile, unbeknownst to me, and you could maybe join them?
I look forward to other posts on the Delta subject. However since I am
newer to this list it may well be old stuff and not fit material. Also, it is
not directly TS/Omega related.
Regards,
Tom Dyste
Wisconsin, USA
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