Wallace,
Here is an
indicator that compliments the channel plot. It’s derived from Brian Millard’s
book “Channels & Cycles: A Tribute To J.M Hurst”. Have attached a screenshot
straight from general use to show you how it might plot…you’re looking at the
indicator with green and grey lines – which correspond to the two
channels.
This
basically will highlight completed/historical cycles on a fixed zero-reference
(if you get the periodicity right). Try playing around with it….eyeball the
peaks and troughs for a given approximate wavelength and then measure the
average number of bars for recent full cycles using the MS Cycle Lines tool
overlaid on the indicator plot. Then fine tune the input to the indicator based
on what you measure. Trial and error should get you somewhere. Overlay a couple
of plots for two major cycles and see what you see…
Of course
there is the ever-present null plot at the right hand edge, so comments in
earlier post applies. The N/A plot is double what it would be for a plot of the
equivalent CMA channel due to the fact that 2 MAs are used in this one, one with
double the length. Therefore plot in conjunction with channel. You can also
create a similar indicator with Simple MAs and overlay that (I plot the
Triangular version as a bold line and the Simple as a light one)…this has less
N/A plot as it doesn’t need the 1.5 factor but is consequently more erratic due
to less smoothing. Gives you a bit more info
though.
This one is
a case of swings and roundabouts really…just another way of looking at what a
CMA is telling you, but I find it visually very useful for determining if there
is a strong cyclic component and what the average wavelength of it is. Allows me
to define time periods when I should be looking for cycle tops and bottoms to
occur if the symmetry holds up. Or, put another way, gives me an idea of when I
should *not* be looking for
tops/bottoms, which is equally as important!
Bear in mind
of course that there is variation in wavelength all the time, so don’t try
banging your head against it trying to get a smooth plot like a sine wave…that
would be far too easy!!
Anyway, what
the attached plot of GBP/USD spot is telling me now is that we may be
approaching a cyclical top this week as shown by the grey cycle line.
However…the longer-term green cycle has only just bottomed. Conclusion – take
some long profits first and then secondly take the rest & go short if a
set-up shows itself with confirmation on shorter time frames… but do so with
care and stay alert for possibility of up-trend re-establishing until end
Jan/early Feb (when green cycle estimated to top).
Note… there
is more to my trading strategy than this and so this is NOT a trade
recommendation!!!...just showing you the line of thinking that goes with these
particular indicators.
Andy
PS, don’t
ask me how I got the buy/sell arrows on the plot please…I won’t tell
!!
------
{Cycle
Highlighter}
{USE TO
ISOLATE SPECIFIC WAVELENGTHS}
{Difference
between two Centred Tri MAs
second MA is
half periodicity of first
- as per
p.176 of Millard: Channels and Cycles}
{odd period
values in MA to ensure there is a valid centre reference
bar}
{Periods}
P1:=Input("Cycle
Wavelength",3,10000,207);
X:=Input("NB,
periods in Tri MA = wavelength * 1.5",0,0,0);
P1:=Int(P1*1.5);
P1:=LastValue(If(Frac(P1/2)=0,P1+1,P1));
P2:=Int(p1/2);
P2:=LastValue(If(Frac(P2/2)=0,P2+1,P2));
{Moving
Averages}
MA1:=Mov(P,P1,TRI);
MA2:=Mov(P,P2,TRI);
{Centre
MAs}
PC1:=LastValue((P1-1)/2);
PC2:=LastValue((P2-1)/2);
CMA1:=Ref(MA1,PC1);
CMA2:=Ref(MA2,PC2);
{Plot}
cyhi:=CMA2-CMA1;
0;cyhi
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday,
December 14, 2005 4:07 AM
Subject:
[EquisMetaStock Group] Hurst
Channel
Hi, does anyone have a Hurst Channel formula/s they
would post please.
TIA. Wallace