Wallace,
Here is an indicator
that compliments the channel plot. It’s derived from Brian Millard’s
book “Channels & Cycles: A Tribute To J.M Hurst”. Have attached
a screenshot straight from general use to show you how it might plot…you’re
looking at the indicator with green and grey lines – which correspond to
the two channels.
This basically
will highlight completed/historical cycles on a fixed zero-reference (if you
get the periodicity right). Try playing around with it….eyeball the peaks
and troughs for a given approximate wavelength and then measure the average
number of bars for recent full cycles using the MS Cycle Lines tool overlaid on
the indicator plot. Then fine tune the input to the indicator based on what you
measure. Trial and error should get you somewhere. Overlay a couple of plots
for two major cycles and see what you see…
Of course
there is the ever-present null plot at the right hand edge, so comments in earlier
post applies. The N/A plot is double what it would be for a plot of the
equivalent CMA channel due to the fact that 2 MAs are used in this one, one
with double the length. Therefore plot in conjunction with channel. You can
also create a similar indicator with Simple MAs and overlay that (I plot the
Triangular version as a bold line and the Simple as a light one)…this has
less N/A plot as it doesn’t need the 1.5 factor but is consequently more
erratic due to less smoothing. Gives you a bit more info though.
This one is a
case of swings and roundabouts really…just another way of looking at what
a CMA is telling you, but I find it visually very useful for determining if
there is a strong cyclic component and what the average wavelength of it is. Allows
me to define time periods when I should be looking for cycle tops and bottoms
to occur if the symmetry holds up. Or, put another way, gives me an idea of
when I should *not* be looking for
tops/bottoms, which is equally as important!
Bear in mind
of course that there is variation in wavelength all the time, so don’t
try banging your head against it trying to get a smooth plot like a sine wave…that
would be far too easy!!
Anyway, what
the attached plot of GBP/USD spot is telling me now is that we may be
approaching a cyclical top this week as shown by the grey cycle line. However…the
longer-term green cycle has only just bottomed. Conclusion – take some long
profits first and then secondly take the rest & go short if a set-up shows
itself with confirmation on shorter time frames… but do so with care and stay
alert for possibility of up-trend re-establishing until end Jan/early Feb (when
green cycle estimated to top).
Note… there
is more to my trading strategy than this and so this is NOT a trade
recommendation!!!...just showing you the line of thinking that goes with these
particular indicators.
Andy
PS, don’t
ask me how I got the buy/sell arrows on the plot please…I won’t
tell !!
------
{Cycle
Highlighter}
{USE TO
ISOLATE SPECIFIC WAVELENGTHS}
{Difference
between two Centred Tri MAs
second MA is
half periodicity of first
- as per p.176
of Millard: Channels and Cycles}
{odd period
values in MA to ensure there is a valid centre reference bar}
{Periods}
P1:=Input("Cycle
Wavelength",3,10000,207);
X:=Input("NB,
periods in Tri MA = wavelength * 1.5",0,0,0);
P1:=Int(P1*1.5);
P1:=LastValue(If(Frac(P1/2)=0,P1+1,P1));
P2:=Int(p1/2);
P2:=LastValue(If(Frac(P2/2)=0,P2+1,P2));
{Moving
Averages}
MA1:=Mov(P,P1,TRI);
MA2:=Mov(P,P2,TRI);
{Centre MAs}
PC1:=LastValue((P1-1)/2);
PC2:=LastValue((P2-1)/2);
CMA1:=Ref(MA1,PC1);
CMA2:=Ref(MA2,PC2);
{Plot}
cyhi:=CMA2-CMA1;
0;cyhi
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday,
December 14, 2005 4:07 AM
Subject: [EquisMetaStock
Group] Hurst
Channel
Hi, does anyone have a Hurst Channel formula/s they would post please.
TIA. Wallace
YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS