The risk
itself cannot be controlled, but your level of exposure to it can. You can
diversify sufficiently so that you don’t put all your capital in one
asset for example. As for the unexpected happening…hell, any one of us
could get struck by lightning tomorrow! Risk is all around us…we can’t
hide from it, but just have to learn to live with it.
> What tends to be
attractive in trading is the theoretically unlimited upside. Rarely do people
discuss the very real prospect of a wipe out or 'flat to down' being far more
likely than unlimited gains
That’s
true, can’t argue with it. But people get attracted to running their own
business for similar reasons. I think it can be summed up by the phrase of “being
a self-made person”. People are also attracted to trading and business
for lifestyle reasons. Having your destiny in your own hands and going to work
when you say so, not when your boss does, are powerful factors.
I never
dismissed statistics out of hand!!!...the flippant comment at the end about 83.876%
of all stats being made up on the spot was a joke! I was referring to Super’s
assertion that 95% of all traders fail.
As for the
poker comment, I’d like to know exactly why you think it is similar to
trading. Could you point me to this research? I can’t see it myself. There
may be something to this ‘bluffing and out-bluffing’ thing if one
is indeed an “elephant”…but seeing as we’re “dancing
with elephants” then where’s the relevance for us? No-one cares
about our bluff!!
From:
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of deepfoobar
Sent: Wednesday, September 07,
2005 3:43 PM
To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [EquisMetaStock
Group] Trading ain't gambling, is it?
Andy,
Some points worth keeping in mind.
First, the success/failure rate for even
professional traders that
I've seen quoted are based on studies of longevity
in the business. As
Nassim Taleb suggests a professional trader
generally speaking has a
shorter life span than a cancer patient, 5-7
years. [for the curious,
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com
].
That does not mean that it impossible to rack up a
lot of gains. But
it does mean there are few people around with long
lifespans in the
game. Eventually traders tend to make one big
mistake, maybe a long
string of small ones, and blow-up.
I'd also suggest that risk is something that
really cannot be
controlled. It can be modeled, it can be hedged,
but in reality the
unexpected does happen far more often than one
would think possible.
There are and have been market situations [2002
volatility of
volatility being one example] that can create
conditions in which even
the best hedges simply go to all heck.
I'd agree psychology and preparedness are key to
success in anything.
However I think it would be a huge mistake to
think the odds are as
favorable in trading as other businesses. They are
not. What tends to
be attractive in trading is the theoretically
unlimited upside. Rarely
do people discuss the very real prospect of a wipe
out or 'flat to
down' being far more likely than unlimited gains.
That is not to say
an exceptional candidate cannot make it work. It
does suggest the
chances are smaller than most people entering the
profession would
like to believe.
As for statistics and probability, these are just
tools like anything
else. However I think it is dangerous and
wrong-headed to dismiss them
out of hand. Especially so given many of the
underpinnings of
technical analysis are essentially derived from
statistics.
For example one should take note that in theory
technical analysis can
and has been shown [in limited cases, not
everything works] to be
statistically significant in producing outsized
returns -- this is key
-- over a long period of time. For reasons that no
one has adequately
demonstrated, only a small handul of traders or
firms of any stripe
have managed to make this happen in reality.
As to poker not being like trading, I think there
you are perhaps dead
wrong. In fact the theory underlying poker and
trading have so much in
common that it has become a hyper-active field for
quantitative
sciences and behavioral finance.
It's also worth bearing in mind that although
there are many
particpants in the trading game at a given time
most pros would argue
it only comes down to who has enough liquidity to
be a significant
player in the game. In that regard it then comes
down to several
dozen players all painfully aware of each other.
Others follow in
their wakes. This is sometimes called 'dancing
between the elephants'.
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