|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Is it
possible to use Metastock DLL plug-in to develop all these?
Regards,
Vladimir
The problem
that you are trying to solve is to extract some
information (trend) from a
noisy signal. My experience ( which comes
from chemical process
control and stock trading ) is that the simplest
SMA or EMA will extract
about 85% of the information content from a
noisy signal. So the
improvements you seek by going to more exotic
calculations will not improve
things very much.
My goals for trenders,
are:
Fast response to trend
changes
Low rate of whipsaws
As you can see,
these tend to be mutually exclusive.
The categories are:
Moving
Averages:
SMA's have a constant weight for each
term of the average
Variable weights for each term
- EMA, WMA, Gaussian, etc
Weights that change
depending on some market condition - like
volatility( try ATR ) - Adaptive
moving averages
Filters:
There are many of
these (mostly coming out of the electronics
industry) like a Kalman
filter. Kalman takes the previous value of
the smoothed function and
adds some fraction of the current value of
the signal based on a complex
formula. (Kalman filters are used to
position disk drive heads and
guide smart bombs) You can look in
Google for Kalman filters, and will
discover they are difficult
mathematically. Also you will discover
that MS - FL is entirely
inadequate to implement these - Better to use
AmiBroker software -
cheaper and MUCH more powerful programming
language.
Curve fitting:
Here you fit some
mathematical function to the price data. MS
has a linear least
squares fit, but higher order fits work much
better. (don't try
programming a quadratic or cubic fit in MS - FL)
Fourier transforms are
also used, but mathematically complex.
______________
My
experience has been that there is some gold to be mined by trying
to
improve your trend following indicators, but not very much.
My
production trading system uses custom coded adaptive moving
average,
and curve fitting.
Cheers,
Ed
Hoopes
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "tan
ming"
<reminiscenostalgia@xxxx> wrote:
> This post hope to
starts a discussion on what are the available
methods or
>
indicators which can effectively used to determine whether current
price is
> in a trend mode. Personally moving average is my main indicator
to
dtermine
> trend. However as many of you guys know, it suffer
when the market is
> starting going to a tradning range. Pls join in
the discussion on the
> following topic:
>
> 1) What are
the effective methods or indicators to determine whether
the
>
current price is in a trend mode.
>
> 2) What are the effective
methods or indicators inorder to tell
whether the
> current price in
the early, middle or mature trend?
>
> Great guys like Jose, Roy,
MG and many of them in the forum pls
offer some
> pointers.
>
>
_________________________________________________________________
>
Block pop-up ads with MSN Toolbar. http://toolbar.msn.com.my/
SPONSORED LINKS
YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS
|