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but it takes really short time especially in
intraday charts where ama is flat. my point is i dont need ama, i would draw a
support ad ressitance and hi and low of a period and expect a non-trending
market within these limits.
i suppose this is much better than the ama then. as
i would be able to predict a trending market after some point right.
i think whatever the indicator is you cannot fully
comment on it without watching it real time for some time.
of course i am understading superfragas point, but
i am still curios about the added value of this indicator. of course i ca see
that as long as the prices are flat, ama stays flat, so what??
for example in ichimoku kinki hyo, when you are in
the cloud it is indecisive zone, and thickness of cloud gives you an idea as
well..
still my question about on-trendig period is
waiting. for example sometimes it takes couple weeks in euro-dollar without a
trend. and if you trade based on divergences on 60-min you make good
money.
i had 200dollars, in 2 weeks it became 2000. just
based o simple divergece but nthing else. but afterwards i missed the begining
of uptrend and lost. because i continued investing based on
divergence.
let me tell you my trending market indicator by the
way : ) if divergence fails then there will be a trending market
beginning..
it is not very accurate but works..
it is also of crucial value that which oscillator
or indicator you will use for divergece. macd is strong but fails.
i analyzed kase's oscilattor but it was too slow
and not very indicative.
currnetly i am using trade directioanl trend index,
which thanks to someone o this list addressed the link from jose's GREAT site.
(special thanks to jose)
maybe it is not the indicator but it is the whoch
indicator for whoch market...
thanks..
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, January 30, 2005 12:00
PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Trending
Market
> superfraga, i kindly thank you for your
effort. but i am terribly that
> i couldnt see anything special with
the floowing code. in which way it
> gives a
prediction?
Possibly there is a language misunderstanding here, but...I
don't think
superfragalist was saying that this will PREDICT anything -
that is not
what you have been asking for. You have been asking for
something which
will help you *identify *the trend, not predict it. By
plotting this
Kaufman AMA you can clearly see where it goes flat during
periods of
consolidation. These are the 'sideways' markets that you have
been
asking about. So if you don't want to enter the markets when they
aren't
trending, don't enter when this Kaufman AMA is low and
flat.
super, don't mean to speak for you but I think this is accurate,
right?
> you can see the consolidation when you look at the
prices, when there
> is a break out the ama also moves, how do you use
it? i thik it may be
> that you may like its smoothing
function?
>
> do you plot it on the prices? i even tried
boll. bad with of ama but
> still couldnt find it valuable. the only
thing i may see is the
> contraria trading, that is if prices are
consolidating wait for some
> volatility to come, but it is of course
observable when you monitor
> the prices or draw a support/ressistace
manually. i added a mov avg to
> the ama still there are swings, maybe
if we optimize... what do you
> say? but still that would make it a
normal trigger.
>
> 200 ma is especially important i euro
dollar trading. once you plot
> you would see it. the paramters may
differ acc. to the market you are
> trading it.
>
>
thanks
>
>
>
>
----- Original Message -----
> *From:*
superfragalist
<mailto:jackolso@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> *To:*
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
<mailto:Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
*Sent:* Sunday, January 30, 2005 8:41 PM
>
*Subject:* [Metastockusers] Trending
Market
>
>
> I think you may be
looking at this in too complex a way. The
moving
> averages do tell you what to do in all
types of markets.
>
> You might try using
Kaufman's AMA. If you put a 20 bar on your
chart
> you will notice it goes flat when the
prices are consolidating.
> Otherwise it shows
the trend. Here's the code.
>
>
>
Periods:=Input("Time Periods",1,1000, 5);
>
Direction := CLOSE - Ref(CLOSE,-periods);
>
Volatility :=
Sum(Abs(ROC(CLOSE,1,$)),periods);
> ER :=
Abs(Direction/Volatility);
> FastSC := 2/(2 +
1);
> SlowSC := 2/(30 +
1);
> SSC := ER * (FastSC - SlowSC) +
SlowSC;
> Constant :=
Pwr(SSC,2);
> AMA:=If(Cum(1)=periods
+1,Ref(C,-1)+constant*(C-Ref(C,-1)),
>
PREV*(1-Constant)+C*Constant);
>
AMA;
>
> If you need a bit more, Roy
published the B&Q indicators in his
>
newsletter which are the simplist methods of determining trend I
have
> seen and they're highly accurate. You
will see that the B&Q agree with
>
Kaufman.
>
> For daily moving I use 4, 9
and 18 bar. Sometimes I look at the 5, 20
> and
50 but not the 200MA.
>
> For weekly I use
either 10 and 40 or 5, 15 and 40.
>
> Put
this stuff on a chart. The Kaufman is the easiest to read. If
it's
> flat there is no
trend.
>
> --- In
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "K U R E K C I"
<kurekci@xxxx>
>
wrote:
> > dear
superfraga,
> > you are also saying that
sometimes market is not trending, when you
> say
" divergence works best when the market isn't
>
> trending"
> > problem is
"weekly
> > and daily moving averges to
figure out which direction to trade in"
>
>
> > these mov avg guys always show a
direction to trade in!!!
> > but infact this
is not correct, sometimes you should not trade
in
> that direction either because market is not
in a trend and divergences
> should be monitored
and mov avg's are just doing dump swings, or
maybe
> even you should not trade at
all...
> >
>
> the least swinging idicator i know is
200ma.
> > what i want is an indicator like
ADX of wilder to show if market is
> tredin -no
matter the direction thats generally obvious- or
not
> trending. but i wasnt satisfied with adx
or vhf.. if you forget about
> the
indicators and look at history, it is possible to draw
some
> bands, when broken there is a trend,
otherwise just moving based on
> divergences. in
tehese intervals most of the ma trend indicators
would
> suggest swing, or simply drift inn the
way of latest market movement,
> like moving in
the wind without showing the real sentiment. i want
an
> indicator to show the market is trending or
not. i even tried
> bollinger bandwith, which i
suppose looked better than the others but
>
still not sharp.
>
>
> > i am currently schaff cycle, but
when try to fit the parameters for
> a time
interval, they simply dont fit the other periods when tehere
is
> a trend. i know that you'll say no ez
lunch, different strategy for
> each interval,
but there should be some kind of a trigger even
to
> switch between
strategies..
>
>
> > sorry for inconvenoence, but i am
spending hours, days looking at
> the chart but
still couldnt find it out. though i still believe
that
> there should be something without any
swing. is it only the support
> and res. that
you draw manually? :-)
>
>
> >
cheers
> >
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: superfragalist
>
> To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Sent: Sunday, January 30, 2005 5:30
PM
> > Subject: [Metastockusers]
Re: RE:MACD Histogram Divergence kit
>
satisfaction
>
>
> >
>
>
> > Hey, Kurekci, you're
right divergence works best when the
> market
isn't
> > trending. But I don't
understand your question about not
> knowing
how
> > to find the trend. I've
posted several times about how to use
>
weekly
> > and daily moving
averges to figure out which direction to
> trade
in.
> >
>
> If you aren't sure what I was getting at, ask a few
questions.
>
>
> >
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "K U R E K C
I"
>
<kurekci@xxxx>
> >
wrote:
> > > whatever the
system is i would test if it suits me for some
>
time eh?
> >
>
> > > divergence is cool,
but it doesnt work all the time, whats
> more
i
> > suppose it fails
generally.
> >
>
> > > what i found out is
especially if the market is trending the
>
> divrgence trading fails. but if the market is not
trending
> > (terminology by
wilder) divergence trading works.
>
> >
> > > my
problem is finding out a solid indicator to see if market
is
> > trending or
not...
> > > maybe a composite
indicator i dunno...
> >
>
> > > superfraga gave a
very different angle to my problem. he
> said it
is
> > not important to catch the
tred, more important is that you
> get on
it
> > at a point and not leave
early..
> >
>
> > > i have to think
about it but still my life would be much
>
easier if i
> > caolu find
something to see if market is treding or not. :
))
> >
>
> > > whatever discussio
we have we should preserve the friendly
>
> atmosphere here, right?
>
> >
> > >
cheers
> >
>
> >
>
> > > -----
Original Message -----
> >
> From: Jay
> >
> To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> > Sent: Sunday, January 30, 2005 12:42
PM
> > > Subject:
[Metastockusers] RE:MACD Histogram Divergence
kit
> >
satisfaction
> >
>
> >
>
> > > To me a
complete trading system means that it is
totally
> > mechanical and
you
> > > take
every entry and exit signal. I have not found
any
> "complete"
>
> system
> >
> that works with MetaStock.
>
> >
> >
>
> >
>
> > >
However, while trying to use the MACDH system for my
EOD
> futures
>
> trading I
> >
> have found several errors in it. Many times, it fails
to
> generate
>
> signals
> >
> when there is in fact divergence; it generates
signals
> when
there
> > is
no
> > >
divergence; and the MACDH Exploration at times returns
signals
> > that are
not
> > >
identified by the MACDH Expert. Also, the documentation
is
> > horribly
lacking
> > > and
while this 'system' claims to be a MACD Histogram
system,
> > nowhere in
any
> > > of the
documentation or in communication with Jose will
he
> provide
>
> that
> >
> formula for the MACD
Histogram
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > > While
Jose is a MetaStock savant, he becomes a
raving
> maniac
when
> > you
point
> > > out
the errors of his system and refuses to investigate
them
> > claiming
that
> > > his
MACDH is "perfect" - as is. That is, he believes
it
> has no
>
> errors.
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > > If you
wish to view divergence, you can plot the MACD
>
Histogram
> >
(formula
> > >
below) and watch it for yourself. You do not need the
MACDH
> > software.
The
> > > MACD
Histogram system is vastly overpriced, has
many
> errors,
and
> > support
is
> > > very much
lacking. The Walter Bressert system runs
>
circles around
> > it and
is
> > > much,
much cheaper.
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > >
Jim
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > > The
MetaStock formula for the MACD Histogram is:
>
> >
> >
>
> >
>
> > > ( Mov(
C,12,E ) - Mov( C,26,E ) ) - Mov( ( Mov( C,12,E )
-
> Mov(
>
> > C,26,E ) ),9,E
)
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > > Kathay
wrote:
> >
>
> > > >
this is not a complete trading
>
> > > system but provides great signals and
you will use your
>
favourite
> > >
> money management methods to beat the
market.
> >
>
> > > Sorry
for my humble question but isn't that more
sensible
> and
more
> > >
marketable to sell it as a complete trading
systems?
> >
>
> >
>
> > >
Kathay
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
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> > >
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> >
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> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
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