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superfraga, i kindly thank you for your effort. but
i am terribly that i couldnt see anything special with the floowing
code. in which way it gives a prediction? you can see the consolidation
when you look at the prices, when there is a break out the ama also moves, how
do you use it? i thik it may be that you may like its smoothing
function?
do you plot it on the prices? i even tried boll.
bad with of ama but still couldnt find it valuable. the only thing i may see is
the contraria trading, that is if prices are consolidating wait for some
volatility to come, but it is of course observable when you monitor the prices
or draw a support/ressistace manually. i added a mov avg to the ama still there
are swings, maybe if we optimize... what do you say? but still that would make
it a normal trigger.
200 ma is especially important i euro dollar
trading. once you plot you would see it. the paramters may differ acc. to the
market you are trading it.
thanks
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, January 30, 2005 8:41
PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Trending
Market
I think you may be looking at this in too complex a
way. The moving
averages do tell you what to do in all types of
markets.
You might try using Kaufman's AMA. If you put a 20 bar on your
chart
you will notice it goes flat when the prices are
consolidating.
Otherwise it shows the trend. Here's the code.
Periods:=Input("Time Periods",1,1000, 5);
Direction := CLOSE -
Ref(CLOSE,-periods);
Volatility := Sum(Abs(ROC(CLOSE,1,$)),periods);
ER
:= Abs(Direction/Volatility);
FastSC := 2/(2 + 1);
SlowSC := 2/(30 +
1);
SSC := ER * (FastSC - SlowSC) + SlowSC;
Constant :=
Pwr(SSC,2);
AMA:=If(Cum(1)=periods
+1,Ref(C,-1)+constant*(C-Ref(C,-1)),
PREV*(1-Constant)+C*Constant);
AMA;
If
you need a bit more, Roy published the B&Q indicators in his
newsletter
which are the simplist methods of determining trend I have
seen and they're
highly accurate. You will see that the B&Q agree with
Kaufman.
For daily moving I use 4, 9 and 18 bar. Sometimes I look at the 5,
20
and 50 but not the 200MA.
For weekly I use either 10 and 40 or 5,
15 and 40.
Put this stuff on a chart. The Kaufman is the easiest to
read. If it's
flat there is no trend.
--- In
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "K U R E K C I"
<kurekci@xxxx>
wrote:
> dear superfraga,
> you are also
saying that sometimes market is not trending, when you
say " divergence
works best when the market isn't
> trending"
> problem is
"weekly
> and daily moving averges to figure out which direction to
trade in"
>
> these mov avg guys always show a direction to trade
in!!!
> but infact this is not correct, sometimes you should not trade
in
that direction either because market is not in a trend and
divergences
should be monitored and mov avg's are just doing dump swings,
or maybe
even you should not trade at all...
>
> the least
swinging idicator i know is 200ma.
> what i want is an indicator like
ADX of wilder to show if market is
tredin -no matter the direction thats
generally obvious- or not
trending. but i wasnt satisfied with adx or vhf..
if you forget about
the indicators and look at history, it is
possible to draw some
bands, when broken there is a trend, otherwise just
moving based on
divergences. in tehese intervals most of the ma trend
indicators would
suggest swing, or simply drift inn the way of latest
market movement,
like moving in the wind without showing the real
sentiment. i want an
indicator to show the market is trending or not. i
even tried
bollinger bandwith, which i suppose looked better than the
others but
still not sharp.
>
> i am currently schaff cycle,
but when try to fit the parameters for
a time interval, they simply dont
fit the other periods when tehere is
a trend. i know that you'll say no ez
lunch, different strategy for
each interval, but there should be some kind
of a trigger even to
switch between strategies..
>
> sorry for
inconvenoence, but i am spending hours, days looking at
the chart but still
couldnt find it out. though i still believe that
there should be something
without any swing. is it only the support
and res. that you draw manually?
:-)
>
> cheers
>
> ----- Original
Message -----
> From: superfragalist
>
To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Sunday, January
30, 2005 5:30 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: RE:MACD
Histogram Divergence kit
satisfaction
>
>
>
> Hey, Kurekci, you're right divergence works best when the
market isn't
> trending. But I don't understand your
question about not knowing how
> to find the trend. I've
posted several times about how to use weekly
> and daily
moving averges to figure out which direction to trade in.
>
> If you aren't sure what I was getting at, ask a few
questions.
>
>
> --- In
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "K U R E K C I"
<kurekci@xxxx>
> wrote:
> >
whatever the system is i would test if it suits me for some time
eh?
> >
> > divergence is cool, but
it doesnt work all the time, whats more i
> suppose it fails
generally.
> >
> > what i found out
is especially if the market is trending the
> divrgence
trading fails. but if the market is not trending
>
(terminology by wilder) divergence trading works.
> >
> > my problem is finding out a solid indicator to see
if market is
> trending or not...
> >
maybe a composite indicator i dunno...
> >
> > superfraga gave a very different angle to my
problem. he said it is
> not important to catch the tred,
more important is that you get on it
> at a point and not
leave early..
> >
> > i have to
think about it but still my life would be much easier if i
>
caolu find something to see if market is treding or not. :
))
> >
> > whatever discussio we
have we should preserve the friendly
> atmosphere here,
right?
> >
> >
cheers
> >
> >
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: Jay
> > To:
Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent:
Sunday, January 30, 2005 12:42 PM
> >
Subject: [Metastockusers] RE:MACD Histogram Divergence kit
>
satisfaction
> >
> >
> > To me a complete trading system means
that it is totally
> mechanical and you
>
> take every entry and exit signal. I have not found any
"complete"
> system
> >
that works with MetaStock.
> >
> >
> >
> > However, while
trying to use the MACDH system for my EOD futures
> trading
I
> > have found several errors in it.
Many times, it fails to generate
> signals
> > when there is in fact divergence; it
generates signals when there
> is no
>
> divergence; and the MACDH Exploration at times returns
signals
> that are not
> >
identified by the MACDH Expert. Also, the documentation
is
> horribly lacking
> >
and while this 'system' claims to be a MACD Histogram
system,
> nowhere in any
>
> of the documentation or in communication with Jose will he
provide
> that
> > formula
for the MACD Histogram
> >
> >
> >
> > While Jose is
a MetaStock savant, he becomes a raving maniac when
> you
point
> > out the errors of his system and
refuses to investigate them
> claiming that
> > his MACDH is "perfect" - as is.
That is, he believes it has no
> errors.
>
>
> >
> >
>
> If you wish to view divergence, you can plot the MACD
Histogram
> (formula
> >
below) and watch it for yourself. You do not need the
MACDH
> software. The
>
> MACD Histogram system is vastly overpriced, has many errors,
and
> support is
> > very
much lacking. The Walter Bressert system runs circles
around
> it and is
> >
much, much cheaper.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Jim
> >
> >
> >
>
> The MetaStock formula for the MACD Histogram
is:
> >
> >
>
>
> > ( Mov( C,12,E ) - Mov( C,26,E ) ) -
Mov( ( Mov( C,12,E ) - Mov(
> > C,26,E )
),9,E )
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Kathay wrote:
> >
> > > this is not a complete
trading
> > > system but provides great
signals and you will use your
favourite
>
> > money management methods to beat the
market.
> >
> > Sorry
for my humble question but isn't that more sensible and
more
> > marketable to sell it as a complete
trading systems?
> >
> >
> > Kathay
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
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> >
> >
> >
> >
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