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Perhaps CoT data can be best explained with this example:
http://users.bigpond.com/prominex/CoT/CoT.jpg
The above link takes us to a chart of the S&P 500 index posted back in
March 2003. The plot below the main chart shows Long/Short CoT
activity by the big players in the markets, the Commercials.
The Commercials have deep pockets, and their trading activities move
the markets in a fundamental way.
Generally, Commercials seek value, and are prepared to buy into a
falling market when they believe prices have fallen to a level they
consider value. Often they start accumulating long before a market
turns, but their massive influence in the markets makes sure that
sooner or later, the market turns their way.
Note what happened around 9/11 2001 in the chart above. Markets
closed after the unfortunate disaster in NY, and when they opened a
few days later, traders and funds alike were tripping over each other
trying to sell.
No so the Commercials - they bought, and bought big, accumulating
value-based Long positions until the public at large realized their
over-reaction and joined them. The strong uptrend that followed is
now history.
Now note March 2003. The Commercials again take a massively Long
position in the market, and what happened next? Subsequently the S&P
500 rallied 33% in one of the strongest uptrends in years.
As Ken suggests, it pays to follow CoT Commercials in a sort of market
sentiment/confirmation way.
Cot data is used by some of the biggest players in the market, and
also by educators such as Larry Williams.
Perhaps if Roy can find some time and space in one of MSTT's issues
this year, I'll write up some possible strategies that use CoT data as
a base. http://www.metastocktips.co.nz/
jose '-)
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Pam and Ken Johnston
<milocat@xxxx> wrote:
Jose
Any chance of a three or four sentence lesson in interpreting the
chart you attached? At first blush, a sentiment indiacator like COT
would be a perfect confirmation for the MACD tool that you offer.
Ken
----- Original Message -----
From: Jose
To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, January 15, 2005 11:08 AM
Subject: [Metastockusers] CoT (Commitment of Traders) data for
Metastock
Matt, I can vouch for the source of the most accurate historical CoT
data available, because I've put it together for them. ;)
http://www.paritech.com.au/products/data/cotdata.asp
As from 1/Jan/2005 Paritech is now updating their own CoT data, so I
can't vouch for its accuracy as from that date.
BTW, this is what CoT data looks like in MetaStock:
http://users.bigpond.com/prominex/CoT/CoTwarning.jpg
"28/Dec/04 - Major investors in the markets are short as never before
- the tide is going out..." - Time will tell.
jose '-)
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "mattheim" <subscribe@xxxx>
wrote:
jose...I noticed the words "Active CoT futures data available (84
contracts, 252 data files),as at Sat 08/Jan/2005" on the web page
you cited in your reply...where can I get more information on how to
subscribe to the service ?
CoT updates available weekly in MetaStock format,
for commercial, large speculators and small traders contracts.
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
wrote:
Each CoT report data line has 129 information fields - MetaStock
can only handle six of those per data file.
If that's not enough to deal with, the CFTC changes the CoT data
field format now and then, adding new contracts (and/or changing the
contract names) on a regular basis, making the MetaStock data
extraction process even more cumbersome.
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftchome.htm
Extracting accurate and meaningful CoT data in MetaStock format is
almost a full-time job.
This is a summary of the latest available CoT data:
http://users.bigpond.com/prominex/CoT/CoTlist.txt
jose '-)
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "mattheim" <subscribe@xxxx>
wrote:
As a futures trader I collect and analyze the CFTC Commitment of
Traders data on a weekly basis using Excel...is there an easy
way to import this data in Metastock ? I have played around with
importing Excel files into Metastock but have found it too
cumbersome to be practical...
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