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Seasonal data is not so much about looking into the future, as to
being aware of the real probabilities ahead. It's somewhat akin to
being aware of the coming tide when out fishing on a beach.
Extracted seasonal data needs to be in synch with available data -
simply referencing back x (250, 252, 260) periods would only work if
each year's data had exactly that number of trading periods in it.
There is a way to extract this data accurately and meaningfully, and
display it into the future in a separate window from the main chart in
Metastock.
Coming market seasonal strength/weakness information can give the
trader a massive edge, specially if there is a mechanism in place to
verify if the current seasonal bias is strong or has broken down due
to unseasonal influences.
Look out for the "LookAhead" seasonal data kit for MetaStock - due out
sometime February/march 2005.
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "tpab2" <tpab2@xxxx> wrote:
>
> Hi Paul,
> Thanks for the response and the effort. What you came up with is
> similar to what I've been getting but not quite what I had in mind.
> Here's what I currently have(To follow). My intentions are to use
> my primary indicators to confirm the seasonal bias that this one
> shows. Hence a higher probability trade. Obviously needs more work
> and I welcome any and all suggestions.
> Thanks again. Here's my current code.
>
> Seas1:= Cum(Mov((C- Ref(C ,-1 ))/Ref(C ,-1 ) ,3 ,E ) ) ;
>
> (Seas1+ Ref(Seas1 ,-252 )+Ref(Seas1 ,-504 )+Ref(Seas1 ,-756 )+Ref
> (Seas1 ,-1008 )+Ref(Seas1 ,-1260 )+Ref(Seas1 ,-1512 )+Ref(Seas1 ,-
> 1764 ))
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Paul Chivers"
> <pchivers@xxxx> wrote:
> How about something like
>
> calc:=Mov( ROC(C ,8 ,% ) ,8 ,E );
> days:=250; {number of trading days in a year}
> y1:=Ref(calc,-days);
> y2:=Ref(calc,-days*2);
> y3:=Ref(calc,-days*3);
> y4:=Ref(calc,-days*4);
> y1+y2+y3+y4;
>
> I don't think you want to include the current year in the
> calculation so I omitted it.
>
> There's no need to divide by 4 (the number of years) as the
> numbers are meaningless anyway. Simply Overlay Without Scale.
>
> I make no claims to its usefulness. Well, actually I think it's
> pretty useless. What you now have is a(nother) squiggly line with
> no new information and you're still left staring at the hard right
> edge.
> What are you going to do with this new squiggly line anyway?
> It only tells you something about what happened in the past
> (or in this case the sum of four things that happened in the past).
> Sounds like you're still chasing the Holy Grail - that magic
> squiggly line that's going to look into the future (impossible)
> and make you money without any effort.
>
> But good luck with it.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tpab2" <tpab2@xxxx>
> To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, 16 January 2005 3:08 AM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: seasonality
>
> Hi again,
> I guess I made it sound harder or more detailed than it actually
> is. All I'm trying to do is overlay the prices(or change in
> prices) for the last 5 or maybe 10 years. For example:
>
> y2003:= If( Year()=2003 , Mov( ROC(C ,8 ,% ) ,8 ,E ) ,0 );
> y2004:= If( Year()=2004 , Mov( ROC(C ,8 ,% ) ,8 ,E ) ,0 );
> y2005:= If( Year()=2005 , Mov( ROC(C ,8 ,% ) ,8 ,E ) ,0 );
>
> (y2003+y2004+y2005)/3
>
> However, this merely plots a continuous Mov( RO(C ,8 ,% ) ,8 ,E ).
> How might I truely differentiate the years data in
> order to sum them? Again, thanks for any suggestions.
> By the way, I only have MS 6.52.
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