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Dear Jose,
Your post is essentially a repeat of Super's...
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
wrote:
>
>
> Superfragalist's lively post below encapsulates some of the most
> important and basic ideas (and traps) about successful trading,
with
> regards to developing a suitable strategy to the individual trader.
> It's a pity that this excellent post will get buried under the 99%
of
> rubbish to follow.
>
> Curve-fitting to past results, looking for this or that indicator
that
> will make us into a mega-trader, in short, looking for the edge in
the
> details - all this and more is akin to looking for that oil well
under
> every pebble on a desert landscape.
>
> Post Q:
> "Anyone know if there could be any oil under there small stones
shaped
> like a pretzel? What would be the best size/ratio/parameters for
them
> pebbles?"
>
> Reply:
> "Hey Joe, I've run my MetaExplorer Percolator XVI through my
> historical database, and just found that 100 billion barrels of oil
> previously discovered had pea-shaped stones on top of it! Forget
> pretzels man - look under peas, small longish ones..."
>
>
> Take the sharp advice from Superfragalist while it lasts.
> Take the time to read this great advice:
> http://www.elitetrader.com/tr/index.cfm?s=17
>
> There are no short-cuts to successful trading strategy development.
> The most successful trader in the world could give us all his
secrets,
> and we wouldn't know what to do with this easily-acquired wisdom.
>
> Don't be lazy, don't waste time on short-cuts, do the work, dig
deeper
> than the parameters/indicators/etc, and you *may* just be on your
way
> to a chance to make it, and perhaps even strike wealth as a side
> benefit.
>
>
> jose '-)
>
>
> From: superfragalist
> Date: Thu Oct 21, 2004 3:32 am
> Subject: System Tester, Number of Bars, and Trading Systems
>
>
> Your questions are typical of people who want to be traders. These
> are the most frustrating questions there are to answer, and frankly
> in my experience a total waste of time to answer. (Sorry boys,
that's
> been my experience!)
>
> Research done by the SEC and academics have concluded that 95% of
all
> traders lose money. Now why is that? Is it because they don't have
> good systems? Or they didn't read the one right trading book? Or
they
> didn't ask the one key question on this site? Or maybe they're just
> dumb. No, it's because trading is a business and 95% of the people
> who get into any business have no idea how to run it, especially one
> like this one.
>
> A lot of people confuse part time trading with having a hobby. When
> you have a hobby, you aren't doing it to make money. When you start
> trying to make money with it, it's no longer a hobby--it's a part
> time business.
>
> I posted a reference to a group of articles by Charlie Wright that
> explains very clearly how to develop a trading system, how to use it
> and how to make money trading.
>
> A total of probably 5 people bothered to read even one of the
> articles, much less all of them. And the 5 people who read them are
> the very people who don't need to read them.
>
> Here's the reference again.
>
> http://www.elitetrader.com/tr/index.cfm?s=17
>
> These articles will fill you in on the fundamentals of developing a
> trading strategy for all ten of your stocks. It's a good place to
> start. From there you only have another 100 or so books to read, 5
> years of applying what you've learned, and a lot of tuition to
> graduate school in trading, and then you've arrived---or you've lost
> your capital and found a new hobby.
>
> The debates on this site are nearly worthless, just like that last
> discussion on the number of bars to test. You have no idea if the
> opinions being expressed are backed up by knowledge and experience,
> or if, like most opinions, they're just hot air. No one has to post
> their trading resumes. Just because someone is say an engineer, or a
> Ph.D., or Albert Einstein that doesn't mean they know squat about
> trading quarters with their grandmother.
>
> The vast majority of opinions aren't backed up by anything like
> knowledge or experience. Opinions are cheap, success is expensive.
>
> People post questions pleading with someone to give them some little
> piece of code. They don't have time read the manual, study the
> formula primer or learn how to do things for themselves, because if
> they just had this one piece of code they could make money trading,
> and after all, that's all they want to do. Those suckers are the
> worst of the lot. Don't be one of them.
>
> There is an individual trading system for every person who becomes a
> successful trader. For those who survive long enough, it's arrived
at
> through education, trial and error, countless hours of work, and
some
> luck. No single trading system works for every person. You notice I
> didn't say there is no single trading system that works for every
> stock. The trading system is about the person using it, not the
> symbol it's applied to. A trading system is only one part of a
> trading strategy. Most want-ta-be's never get far enough to even get
> close to having a trading strategy.
>
> If you read Wright's articles, you'll find out that a trading
> strategy is not, "I'm going to trade breakouts based on the price of
> spam tomorrow." Far from it. Just that one little piece of knowledge
> will put you ahead of most of the pack.
>
> Nearly everyday I talk to successful traders and systems developers
> and some of them are doing just the opposite of what I'm doing. The
> only thing we're both doing is making money, and have for a long
> time. Neither of us tries to convince the other one we're right.
>
> The bottom line is, whether you're trading 1 stock or 500 stocks,
> it's a business. Learn the business. It's a brutal business. There
> are more people selling information on how to trade successfully
than
> there are successful traders. That ought to give you a clue.
>
> Just remember, if some simple system, formula, charting technique or
> whatever worked really well, everyone would be doing it, and they're
> not.
>
> The magic is in the way the system fits you. That's it. That's the
> secret.
>
> Read the articles and start learning how to tailor a suit of clothes
> that fits you and you alone, not your ten stocks.
>
> If things don't work out, buy a copy of The Four Pillars of
Investing
> by William Bernstein. It's the best buy and hold book ever written.
>
> And please remember, if you're going to lose your money, at least
> have some fun while you're doing it!
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