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I'm sure everyone would more than emphatically agree with me that the
more historical bars the better to test on. When you use less bars
in your system test, the more likely you are going to be curve
fitting your system to the data. That, and what happens if/when the
market reverts to a state similar to previous years, ie. stops or
begins trending.... Your system more than likely won't be able to
cope with the changes. You want to make sure the system that you
design is more than capable of performing well (or at least
minimizing losses) in all types of market conditions thereby making
it more robust. You'll thank yourself later. Two years is a
ridiculously small amount in my opinion. That isn't enough to cover
bull/bear and trending/non-trending markets. For me, I would be hard
pressed to put trust in any sytem that hasn't been tested on at least
a decade of historical daily data. I'm skeptical of the system I'm
designing now because esignal has only 5 months of 60 minute data for
forex. But even that is still well over 2000 bars. Plus I'm using
the same system for 20 different pairs to make sure I can at least
cover as many different market conditions as I can...
Best Regards,
David Piatek
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "metastkuser"
<andysmith_999@xxxx> wrote:
>
>
> I usually do MS EOD System Testing with 500 bars (just under 2
> years). I notice that the manual says I should use at least 1000
bars
> (preferably 2000) in order for the results/data to be statistically
> significant.
>
> My question: Is it really better to use 2000 bars instead of 500 or
> 250 bars? The stock had a completely different "personality" 2000
> bars ago, and the market itself may have been very different from
> what it is today. Don't I want to focus on trading systems which
have
> been the most successful it the last few months?
>
> TIA
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