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Chance of getting all heads or tails in:
5 coin tosses in a row: 3.125% (0.5^5)
7 coin tosses in a row: 0.78125% (0.5^7)
50 tosses, chance of getting:
a single run of 5 coin tosses in a row: approx 27.2%
a single run of 7 coin tosses in a row: approx 5.4%
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rvalue1" <rvalue1@xxxx> wrote:
> I have been using 80% of equity for a while and it works fine. It
> shows a lower return because only 80 % of your equity is invested
and
> the final return is a percentage of your account. That keeps me more
> realistic on my expectations of what I would make..
> Another interesting thing..On flipping a coin with a 50% probability
> of success, what do you think are the odds of getting 5 tails (bad
> trades in a row out of 50 trades) in a row? Very high - like over
> 70% with a Monte Carlo simulation; per Schaeffer. That shows the
> importance of money management and sticking to a system for the long
> haul and not giving up after a few consecutive bad trades in a row..
> I flipped a coin 25 times and got 7 tails in a row, and eventually
10
> Heads out of the 25 flips.
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jose_locatelli"
> <jmlocatelli@xxxx> wrote:
> > Tom
> >
> > I followed the recommendations in your document, and it seems that
> my
> > system is now testing well.
> >
> > Thanks again,
> > J Locatelli
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tom Sprunger"
> > <tlsprunger@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Andrew, J Locatelli,
> > >
> > > Some of your questions and problems should be covered in the doc
> > below
> > > posted in the Files section on this group.
> > >
> > > Sprunger Guide to MS ver8.doc
> > >
> > > Go read it carefully.
> > >
> > > The v8/9 testers have a broker module. Equis attempted to make
it
> > > "realistic". Yeah, right. Like anyone actually trades like
> this.
> > >
> > > When the tester gets a signal it calculates the number of shares
> to
> > buy and
> > > passes it to the broker. The broker places the trade if there
are
> > > sufficient funds etc. Otherwise it cancels it.
> > >
> > >
> > > Considered : means a signal has been generated.
> > > Placed: means an order was sent to the broker for a specific
> > number of
> > > shares based on the price on the bar the signal was generated
and
> > the equity
> > > being used
> > > Open: means the broker put the order in. If on a buy, you will
> get
> > filled
> > > if the price is lower than on the bar the signal was generated,
> > otherwise
> > > you will not.
> > > Executed: means the order was filled
> > > Cancelled - open cost: means the order was not filled because
the
> > price on
> > > the next bar is more (for a buy) than the price calculated on
the
> > signal bar
> > > Cancelled- Position Limit: means the order was not filled
> because
> > you had
> > > the max number of position already open
> > > Cancelled - Zero Size: means you did not have enough equity to
> buy
> > 1 share
> > >
> > > There may be some others.
> > >
> > > Jose, on your specific question,
> > > (Considered) at 15:50 you got a signal to buy 3494 shares
> > > (Placed) at 15:50 the order for 3494 shares was sent to the
> broker
> > to
> > > execute on the next bar
> > > (Cancelled - Open Cost) at 15:55, the order for 3492 shares was
> > opened and
> > > then cancelled because the price was higher than the price where
> > the 3494
> > > shares were calculated.
> > >
> > > You are probably using 100% of your equity, right? So at 15:50
> > when the
> > > signal was generated it divided your equity by the price on the
> > signal and
> > > came up with 3494 shares. On the next bar at 15:55, the price
> went
> > up
> > > enough that to buy 3494 shares would have taken more funds than
> you
> > had
> > > equity. So instead of just buying a share or two less, which is
> > what any
> > > real trader would do, it cancelled the entire order and you
> missed
> > the
> > > signal. No trade.
> > >
> > >
> > > Tom
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Andrew Tomlinson" <andrew_tomlinson@xxxx>
> > > To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2004 7:33 AM
> > > Subject: RE: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled - Open
Cost"
> in
> > > Enhanced System Test
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Even better, if someone has a list of the comments that appear
in
> > the orders
> > > report with explanations. None of them are documented in the
> > manual. I am on
> > > the verge of giving up on Metastock 8/9 as a platform for system
> > testing.
> > > Too many undocumented bizarre little tricks to get it to do
> simple
> > tests. I
> > > haven't done a single system test on this platform that I really
> > have
> > > confidence in. Not a basis for successful trading.
> > >
> > > (forgive my bitching. Just spent another 4 hours yesterday
trying
> > to match a
> > > simple system with Colby, with mixed results)
> > >
> > > Andrew
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: jose_locatelli [mailto:jmlocatelli@x...]
> > > Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2004 7:30 AM
> > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled - Open Cost" in
> > Enhanced
> > > System Test
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi,
> > > I wrote a system test and during the its simulation some enter
> > > signals are cancelled, with a "Cancelled - Open Cost" event
> reported
> > > on the Orders report, shown below. I didnīt find any reference
to
> > > this type of event in the help and in the MS8 manual.
> > >
> > > Can any of you explain what this event means? And how to avoid
it?
> > >
> > > 174 23/4/2004 14:50 5 Considered Sell 3494 Market 2
> > > Signal
> > > 174 23/4/2004 14:50 5 Placed Sell 3494 Market 2
> > > Signal
> > > 175 23/4/2004 14:55 5 Opened Sell 3494 Market 2
> > > Signal
> > > 175 23/4/2004 14:55 5 Executed Sell 3494 Market
> $2.8500
> > > Open 2 Signal
> > > 184 23/4/2004 15:50 6 Considered Buy 3492 Market
> > Signal
> > > 184 23/4/2004 15:50 6 Placed Buy 3492 Market
> > Signal
> > > 185 23/4/2004 15:55 6 Cancelled - Open cost Buy 3492 Market
> > Signal
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > Locatelli
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
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