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<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Statistically you can get long strings of head or tails. Feller ( he
wrote 2 books on statistics) discussed this and showed that in a coin toss of a
thousand tosses he could get strings of head or tails that were several
hundred hits long.
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Lionel
From: rvalue1 [mailto:rvalue1@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, May 14, 2004 8:55 PMTo:
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group]
Event "Cancelled - Open Cost" in Enhanced System Test
I have been using 80% of equity for a while and it works fine. It
shows a lower return because only 80 % of your equity is invested and
the final return is a percentage of your account. That keeps me more
realistic on my expectations of what I would make..Another interesting
thing..On flipping a coin with a 50% probability of success, what do you
think are the odds of getting 5 tails (bad trades in a row out of 50 trades)
in a row? Very high - like over 70% with a Monte Carlo simulation; per
Schaeffer. That shows the importance of money management and sticking to a
system for the long haul and not giving up after a few consecutive bad
trades in a row.. I flipped a coin 25 times and got 7 tails in a row, and
eventually 10 Heads out of the 25 flips.--- In
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jose_locatelli" <jmlocatelli@xxxx>
wrote:> Tom> > I followed the recommendations in your
document, and it seems that my > system is now testing well.>
> Thanks again,> J Locatelli> > --- In
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tom Sprunger" > <tlsprunger@xxxx>
wrote:> > Andrew, J Locatelli,> > > > Some
of your questions and problems should be covered in the doc >
below> > posted in the Files section on this group.> >
> > Sprunger Guide to MS ver8.doc> > > > Go read
it carefully.> > > > The v8/9 testers have a broker
module. Equis attempted to make it> > "realistic".
Yeah, right. Like anyone actually trades like this.> >
> > When the tester gets a signal it calculates the number of shares
to > buy and> > passes it to the broker. The broker
places the trade if there are> > sufficient funds etc. Otherwise it
cancels it.> > > > > > Considered : means a
signal has been generated.> > Placed: means an order was
sent to the broker for a specific > number of> > shares based
on the price on the bar the signal was generated and > the equity>
> being used> > Open: means the broker put the order in. If
on a buy, you will get > filled> > if the price is lower
than on the bar the signal was generated, > otherwise> > you
will not.> > Executed: means the order was filled> >
Cancelled - open cost: means the order was not filled because the > price
on> > the next bar is more (for a buy) than the price calculated on
the > signal bar> > Cancelled- Position Limit: means the
order was not filled because > you had> > the max number of
position already open> > Cancelled - Zero Size: means you did not have
enough equity to buy > 1 share> > > > There may
be some others.> > > > Jose, on your specific
question,> > (Considered) at 15:50 you got a signal to buy
3494 shares> > (Placed) at 15:50 the order for 3494 shares was
sent to the broker > to> > execute on the next bar>
> (Cancelled - Open Cost) at 15:55, the order for 3492 shares was >
opened and> > then cancelled because the price was higher than the
price where > the 3494> > shares were calculated.> >
> > You are probably using 100% of your equity, right? So
at 15:50 > when the> > signal was generated it divided your
equity by the price on the > signal and> > came up with 3494
shares. On the next bar at 15:55, the price went > up>
> enough that to buy 3494 shares would have taken more funds than you
> had> > equity. So instead of just buying a share or two
less, which is > what any> > real trader would do, it cancelled
the entire order and you missed > the> >
signal. No trade.> > > > > >
Tom> > > > > > > > ----- Original
Message ----- > > From: "Andrew Tomlinson"
<andrew_tomlinson@xxxx>> > To:
<equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Wednesday, May 12,
2004 7:33 AM> > Subject: RE: [EquisMetaStock Group] Event "Cancelled -
Open Cost" in> > Enhanced System Test> > > >
> > > > > > Even better, if someone has a list of
the comments that appear in > the orders> > report with
explanations. None of them are documented in the > manual. I am
on> > the verge of giving up on Metastock 8/9 as a platform for system
> testing.> > Too many undocumented bizarre little tricks to
get it to do simple > tests. I> > haven't done a single
system test on this platform that I really > have> > confidence
in. Not a basis for successful trading.> > > > (forgive my
bitching. Just spent another 4 hours yesterday trying > to match
a> > simple system with Colby, with mixed results)> >
> > Andrew> > > > -----Original
Message-----> > From: jose_locatelli [mailto:jmlocatelli@xxxx]>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 12, 2004 7:30 AM> > To:
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group]
Event "Cancelled - Open Cost" in > Enhanced> > System
Test> > > > > > Hi,> > I wrote a system
test and during the its simulation some enter> > signals are
cancelled, with a "Cancelled - Open Cost" event reported> > on the
Orders report, shown below. I didn´t find any reference to> > this
type of event in the help and in the MS8 manual.> > > > Can
any of you explain what this event means? And how to avoid it?> >
> > 174 23/4/2004 14:50 5
Considered
Sell 3494 Market 2> > Signal> > 174 23/4/2004
14:50 5
Placed
Sell 3494 Market 2> > Signal> > 175 23/4/2004
14:55 5
Opened
Sell 3494 Market 2> > Signal> > 175 23/4/2004
14:55 5
Executed
Sell 3494 Market $2.8500> > Open 2 Signal> > 184
23/4/2004 15:50 6
Considered Buy
3492 Market > Signal> > 184 23/4/2004 15:50 6
Placed
Buy 3492 Market > Signal> > 185 23/4/2004
15:55 6 Cancelled - Open cost Buy 3492 Market >
Signal> > > > Regards,> > Locatelli> >
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links> > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups
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