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Dusant,
Give a Neural Net weather and market data, and it will find strong
correlations and a winning method for the past only - the ultimate
curve-fit.
There are many dynamic/complex positive/negative correlations in the
markets. It takes understanding of the fundamental market underlying
forces before these tools can begin to be useful.
The old adage has never been truer:
"Garbage in, garbage out"
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dusant" <dusant@xxxx> wrote:
> Jose,
>
> There are quite a few methods, using software to forecast. Neural
Networks is one such example which come to mind straightaway.
>
> They are good for forecasting where the cause and effect can be
directly correlated like weather patterns.
>
> So, if an enterprising person can do this kind of modelling,
> a.. a neural network with weather patterns and
> b.. agricultural commodity prices as inputs
> it could be a sell-out.
>
> MVHO
>
> Dusant
> Chief Architect
> http://www.candlestrength.com/
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
> To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 5:33 AM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'? showing part
of next day data?
>
>
> >
> > Lionel, with all due respect, you will not find any successful
> > forecasting methods available for the markets, in any large public
> > library, academic library, or amazon.com
> >
> > In the ever-shifting sands of the markets, forecasting is a very
> > complex, dynamic subject. For example, what may have been
relatively
> > accurate three years ago, may not work so well now.
> >
> > And as for academic papers... well, let's just say that the real
> > trading world and the view from the academic ivory towers are very
> > different indeed.
> >
> > jose '-)
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxx
>
> > wrote:
> > > Jose:
> > >
> > > Forecasting is a discipline that is taught in many management
> > courses. It is
> > > used in industry, insurance companies, and the military.
> > >
> > > If you want more information just look up forecasting in a
larger
> > public
> > > library, an academic library, or amazon.com
> > >
> > >
> > > Lionel
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > _____
> > >
> > > From: Rick Carbert [mailto:rcarbert@x...]
> > > Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 2004 5:31 PM
> > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'?
showing
> > part of
> > > next day data?
> > >
> > >
> > > My reference is to using historical data. The year I
mentioned
> > here is
> > > 2003.
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Jose [mailto:josesilva22@x...]
> > > Sent: May 3, 2004 11:06 PM
> > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'? showing
part
> > of next
> > > day data?
> > >
> > > Rick,
> > >
> > > Please send me some of that medication you are on - I would like
to
> > > know what is happening the next day too! ;)
> > >
> > > jose '-)
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rickbc11" <rcarbert@xxxx
>
> > > wrote:
> > > > Hi: I am practising as per Elder's book "Come into My
Trading
> > > > Room" and using historical EOD data. However, I find that
when
> > > > looking at my charts, Metastock shows me what is happening the
> > next
> > > > day by starting to draw the next days oscillator line either
up or
> > > > down.
> > > > For example, on my EOD for May 3, 2003 using the
Stochastic
> > > > osc., I can see that the next day will probably be up somewhat
> > > > because the Stochastic indicator has alread started to angle
that
> > > > way. (Put your crosshair over May 3rd and you will see what
I
> > > > mean).
> > > > How can I set Metastock so that this doesn't happen?
> > > > Thanks-Rick
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
> >
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> >
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