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Hey Jo,
Great quote:
=====================================================================
"I see lots of questions regarding plug-ins and my answer is simply
that asking what's the best plug-in is like asking is a 38 R suit
better than a 44 tall. Well, it depends on who you are and what your
size and style happens to be. No one has invented a one size fits all
suit yet either"
====================================================================
I'll have to remember that one.
I think, it's really true, it's like when someone asks, "will this work?" The answer is, "will it work for whom?" For you? The best trader on this board? The best trader on wall street? One size doesn't fit all and the answer always lies within the trader. We all probably know enough about trading to make it a profitable endeavor, it's usally the trader that stops the trader from becoming a consistent profitable trader. I believe that the trader can do a great deal more to improve his/her trading situation by studying his/her own psyche and undertanding that part than by looking for a better mouse trap. But having said that, the trader still, after studying his own psychological make-up, must find a method, the time frame, the risk/reward and win/loss ratio that suits the trader. That's the real key in this game, to become comfortable with who you are as a trader and then finding a method that optimizes that personality. Then, of course to milk that to it's fullest potential and beyond.
That is certainly not an easy thing to do. I know it took a lot for me to realize this. I always tried different methods approaches etc. Always looking for that elusive better mouse trap. Which wasn't a waste of time, but it was a ciruitous route to understanding what is truly important, that is, it's all in the "head" of the trader.
My conclusion to all this is very similar to Jo's, to scan 7000 different stocks for the best set-up and then trade it correctly is a difficult thing to do. It's like when I used to use filters to trade stocks intraday, while it feels like if you have more opportunities staring in your face, and each one probably (if tested well) has a built in edge, you still have that problem of deciding which one's to take. The answer probably is, take all of them. Some people do that but for me that doesn't work, I just don't have the bank to do that. Nor do I have the personality to be able to trade such large number of stocks and stay on top of things. I know that I'm much more profitable if I stare at a handful of stocks and trade those over and over. I just look for logical resistance/support areas and see how the bids/offers and prints are running and get a "feel" of the crowd and run with momentum. No, it isn't a rigorously back tested method per se but it suits me. That's the important thing. I'm awful at following a regimented method. I've tried it. I backtested methods and came up with good set-ups but invariably I found that I keep injecting my own views when it comes time to really trade, i.e., I don't have the discipline to trade this way. I guess I can't be what Mark Douglas calls the "probablistic trader."
Oh well, to each his own.
Profitable trading to all!
Gus
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There are 3 messages in this issue.
Topics in this digest:
1. S&P mini contract historical data
From: Frans Derksen <fjderksen@xxxxxxxxx>
2. Would like to read listers review on 3 books
From: Ron <ronber@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
3. Trend Medium for Expert Generation
From: "kelols" <kelols@xxxxxxxxxxx>
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 1
Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2003 12:48:17 +0200
From: Frans Derksen <fjderksen@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: S&P mini contract historical data
Since one day I've been set up to trade these s&p mini's or E-mini's at the
CME.
Yes I took my first loss, but believe that he who looses best wins in the
end <G>
My broker is GNI (daughter of MAN-financials) in London England.
My edges are all based on Linda Bradford Raschke's indicators (First cross,
Anti etc)
I tested this on the S&P cash contract.
But found out that these mini's lead a (data)life of their own......
Can anybody supply me with some historical data or a webaddress where I can
download this ?
The symbol seems to be ESU3
Just downloaded data from INO (http://quotes.ino.com/) after writing up for
a freetrial thing.
But imho these data are bad.
Thanks and good trading,
Frans
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 2
Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2003 08:58:04 -0400
From: Ron <ronber@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Would like to read listers review on 3 books
Has anybody here read (and tried to apply) the following three books?:
Fibonacci For The Active Trader By Derrik Hobbs
The Trading Windows Strategy by The Connors Group
Big Trends in Trading by Price Headley
If you have, I'd appreciate reading your review/comments.
TIA
Ron
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Message: 3
Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2003 02:16:57 -0000
From: "kelols" <kelols@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Trend Medium for Expert Generation
There's been a lot of talk about trendmedium so I got the software
and ran a few optimizations. Most of the discussion has centered
around testing. I have my own system for testing.
Over the last year, I've written a couple of experts that I trade
with everyday. They have been tuned specifically for the dozen stocks
I trade.
I compared the results from TrendMedium and the resulting experts
were pretty good. I find that mine still beat TMs by a few tenths of
a percent, (in live trading, not in system tester or whatever) so I
wouldn't switch to the ones that were generated with TM. I calculated
that against the results from live trades, entry and exit points.
The experts I've written are very profitable when applied to the
small universe of stocks I use them on. I have written explorations
and they work well in finding stocks that are about to trigger buys
or shorts in my system. But I don't search for stocks because I make
plenty of money just trading the swings on the stocks I trade
everyday. Sometimes I trade mutual funds. I wrote a great expert
system for mutual funds, but the market is not in the mutual fund
mood right now.
I would put TM's experts in the top ten percent of the ones I've
tested or programmed myself. I have tested over 160 of them, It took
me many hundreds of hours and dozens and dozens of revisions to get
my experts to work as well as they do. You can get ninety percent of
the way there with TM, without the hundreds of hours of work.
That being said, I have no clue if you can make money using TM. If I
subsituted TM's experts for mine, I would still make a nice return,
but I can't speak for what other people are trading. When I tell
traders what I trade and how I trade, they look at me like I'm an
idot, until they find out the daily profit percentage of the system.
I'm a believer in the axiom that you have to trade stocks and use
systems that fit your personality and style. I see people on this
chat site wanting better ways to search 7000 stocks a night. How are
you going to find stocks that fit your style, if you look at 7000
everyday to find 100 new ones.
I told someone today that in one of my revisions I programmed a
system that worked great on a wide variety of stocks. I traded with
it for a few weeks and hated it. It was dead on, but when you don't
like something, you're not going to make money for long with it. I
started making the most money when I picked stocks that fit me first
and then programmed a system for trading them. It fit like a glove,
and now I actually look forward to trading everyday. While I didn't
lose any money with the other system, I was losing my smile, which is
equally as important as how much you make.
TM is not bad. There's a few things I haven't figured out how to do.
The manual is a little sparse.
I would buy it and keep it, if I didn't already have optimized
experts on my charts. I found Bressert's to be the second best plug-
in, if you need a day trading system and can't write one. I've used
almost all of the Metastock plug-ins. They aren't suppose to be a
complete trading system and find all the profitable stocks in the
universe. However, they gave me many good ideas which I have used in
my other systems that produce the results I was looking for.
I see lots of questions regarding plug-ins and my answer is simply
that asking what's the best plug-in is like asking is a 38 R suit
better than a 44 tall. Well, it depends on who you are and what your
size and style happens to be. No one has invented a one size fits all
suit yet either.
Good luck!
JO
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