|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
David,
Thanks for the kind words.
Re: TSG, I'm holding off on any trades right now, long or short,
until I see the nature of the present correction/consolidation. My
pov may change as of Mon (or Tues, or Wed...) of course, but right
now, I'm scanning more for shorts.
As for indicators, I use them for general scans of trends and
volatility, ADX and ATR, and visually filter those charts for my
setups, but not for trading. For one thing, many of the most popular
are redundant. Secondly, if price and volume is giving me a clear
signal, I will always take that over a conflicting indicator. The
most positive use I've found w/indicators is divergences at
double/triple tops and bottoms, but this is already indicated in the
price spreads and volume, and even more clearly, imo.
Harold
Harold
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "David H. Linton"
<dhlinton@xxxx> wrote:
> I, for one, but I am sure many others, appreciate the time you took
to write up this analysis and trade. TSG may be setting up now for
another little bugger.
> CCI(5) may be a useful addition to your swing quiver.
> David
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Harold O. Courtney
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Monday, June 09, 2003 11:07 AM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] TSG Trade in MS
>
>
> This is a short-term pullback play. I use MS to scan for stocks
in strong uptrends w/good relative strength. I then visually scan
these charts to find those coming out of strong bases that meet
Wyckoff criteria and I refine it further by looking for cross-
verification thru a convergence of different elements of support and
resistance - trendline, ma's, Fibs, ect.
>
>
>
> In Sept and Oct last year TSG reaches a Selling Climax (SC) after
a sustained sharp downtrend. This is followed by an Automatic
Reaction (AR). According to Wyckoff, the SC and AR define the Trading
Range (horizontal yellow lines).
>
>
>
> After attempting and failing to breakout of the range 12/02 price
forms a descending triangle. On 3/10 there is a shakeout (SO) at the
bottom of the range. Note the relatively strong volume and the close
in the upper half of the bar and back into the range here. A nice
reversal bar.
>
>
>
> In late Mar and early Apr price consolidates around the
flattening and converging 20d and 50d ema's and sits at the apex of
the narrowing triangle as volatility winds down. 4/21 a huge
breakaway gap on strong volume above the downtrend line and both the
ema's, as the 20d crosses above the 50d.
>
>
>
> In early May price hits resistance at the top of the range and
the now flat 200d ema, where it consolidates. Note the low vol and
how price hugs both these converging major resistance points,
refusing to go down. 5/13 a strong breakout above both on a wide
spread and huge volume. RS vs S&P is very positive here.
>
>
>
> Now I'm looking to enter on a pullback if it's positive. On 5/14
the reaction begins on strong down vol, but the bar is narrow and
does not retrace even half of that previous massive breakout bar.
5/15 is a very narrow spread on low vol and little price loss. 5/19 a
wide spread on relatively strong vol, which suggests weakness, but
then look what happens, there is no follow-thru: 5/21 a wide spread
closing on the high on strong down vol, the body of the candle
closing smack dab on the flat 200d ema and the rising 20d ema, a
Dragonfly Doji. That's real purty, imo. This convergence appears to
be very positive sign for a reversal bar and a resumption of the
rally.
>
>
>
> So I set a buy stop just above the top of this bar at 21.77 w/a
protective stop just below the low at 20.77. My profit objective is
just under the previous high at 23.73 so I'm looking at about a 2:1
reward:risk ratio. I trail my stops each day to the day's lows.
Because vol on the rally is unimpressive I scale out half my position
after I've made 1 pt at 22.77, then close out the rest of the
position on 5/29 when my objective is hit.
>
>
>
> Yes, it's a small gain but I'm a swing trader, that's what I do.
Believe me, these little buggers add up. As always, money management
and risk control are essential to the strategy. Safety first, profits
second.
>
>
>
> Harold
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> ADVERTISEMENT
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> Metastockusers-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
Service.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Get A Free Psychic Reading! Your Online Answer To Life's Important Questions.
http://us.click.yahoo.com/Lj3uPC/Me7FAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
Metastockusers-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|