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I, for one, but I am sure many others, appreciate the time
you took to write up this analysis and trade. TSG may be setting up now for
another little bugger.
CCI(5) may be a useful addition to your swing
quiver.
David
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Harold O.
Courtney
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, June 09, 2003 11:07
AM
Subject: [Metastockusers] TSG Trade in
MS
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>This is a short-term
pullback play. I use MS to scan for stocks in strong <SPAN
class=SpellE>uptrends w/good relative strength. I then visually scan
these charts to find those coming out of strong bases that meet
<SPAN
>Wyckoff<FONT
face=Arial> criteria and I refine it further
by looking for cross-verification thru a convergence of different elements of
support and resistance - trendline, <SPAN
class=GramE>ma's, Fibs, <SPAN
class=SpellE>ect.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>In Sept and Oct last
year TSG reaches a Selling Climax (SC) after a sustained sharp downtrend. This
is followed by an Automatic Reaction (AR). According to
<SPAN
>Wyckoff<FONT
face=Arial>, the SC and AR define the
<SPAN
>Trading<FONT
face=Arial>
<SPAN
>Range<FONT
face=Arial> (horizontal yellow
lines).
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>After attempting and
failing to breakout of the range 12/02 price forms a descending triangle. On
3/10 there is a shakeout (SO) at the bottom of the range. Note the relatively
strong volume and the close in the upper half of the bar and back into the
range here. A nice reversal
bar.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>In late Mar and early
Apr price consolidates around the flattening and converging 20d and 50d <SPAN
class=SpellE>ema's and sits at the apex of the narrowing triangle as
volatility winds down. 4/21 a huge breakaway gap on strong volume above the
downtrend line and both the ema's, as the 20d
crosses above the 50d.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>In early May price
hits resistance at the top of the range and the now flat 200d <SPAN
class=SpellE>ema, where it consolidates. Note the low <SPAN
class=SpellE>vol and how price hugs both these converging major
resistance points, refusing to go down. 5/13 a strong
breakout above both on a wide spread and huge volume. RS <SPAN
class=SpellE>vs S&P is very positive
here.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>Now I'm looking to
enter on a pullback if it's positive. On 5/14 the reaction begins on strong
down vol, but the bar is narrow and does not retrace
even half of that previous massive breakout bar. 5/15 is a very narrow spread
on low vol and little price loss. 5/19 a wide spread
on relatively strong vol, which suggests weakness,
but then look what happens, there is no follow-thru: 5/21 a wide spread
closing on the high on strong down vol, the body of
the candle closing smack dab on the flat 200d ema
and the rising 20d ema, a Dragonfly <SPAN
class=SpellE>Doji. That's real purty, <SPAN
class=SpellE>imo. This convergence appears to be very positive sign for
a reversal bar and a resumption of the rally.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>So I set a buy stop
just above the top of this bar at 21.77 w/a protective stop just below the low
at 20.77. My profit objective is just under the previous high at 23.73 so I'm
looking at about a 2:1 reward<SPAN
class=GramE>:risk ratio. I trail my stops each day to the day's
lows. Because vol on the rally is unimpressive I
scale out half my position after I've made 1 pt at 22.77, then close out the
rest of the position on 5/29 when my objective is
hit.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>Yes, it's a small
gain but I'm a swing trader, that's what I do. Believe me, these little
buggers add up. As always, money management and risk control are essential to
the strategy. Safety first, profits second.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>Harold
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
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