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Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Formula to predict price point at which MACD-Histogram will reverse its slope.



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Frank

It's possible to calculate tomorrow's values for a number of indicators
(probably for most) given a projected closing price.

Exponential moving averages (the basis of MACD) are very easy to determine
the future direction for a given future price.

Some simple rules that apply to all exponential moving averages.
1. If tomorrow's price is greater than today's moving average then the MA
will move up when the price is added.
2. If tomorrow's price is less than today's moving average then the MA will
move down when the price is added.

3. If tomorow's price is equal to today's moving average then the MA will
remain the same when the price is added.

Note that these rules only apply to exponential MA's including Wilders
Smoothing. They do not apply to S, W, T, Tri etc.

With MACD you are dealing with MA's that are coming together or seperating
so it's a little more difficult to calculate, but off the top of my head I'd
be willing to bet that the shorter MA will move faster (26/12 times faster)
than the longer one, and therefore a series of rules such as those above
could be deduced without too much effort.

Roy

> I am using a system that has has MACD Histogram as an integral part.
>
> I have been trying to rap my head around some code that will plot an
> indicator one day ahead into the future, allowing the plot of a predicted
> Close price point that would indicate the MACD-Histogram reveral point for
> tomorrow.
>
> ie.
> 1. For down sloping MACD-Histogram, if the closing price tomorrow is above
> the value of this Indicator, then MACD-Histogram will tick up, and
> 2. For up sloping MACD Histogram, if the closing price is below the value
of
> this Indicator, then MACD-Histogram will tick down.
>
> I'm thinking this may help with an entry/exit before the close of days
> trade.
>
> Has anyone successfully cracked this one?
>
> At present I am opening Downloader, entering tomorrow's date and
> experimenting my manually entering a series of closing prices, switching
> back to chart of MACD Histogram to find the Closing price that will
trigger
> MACD-Histogram change of slope. Very intensive effort.
>
>   Thanks, Frank
>
>
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