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Bill -
I was fortunate enough to hook up with Steve
Karnish (who is an incredible system researcher and person) about a year ago. He
shared his work with me and invited me to participate with him in development.
What we (he) developed is a very simple trend qualifier and a variation of the
CMO. I suppose you could call it the Karnish Momentum System. Very simple, very
effective.
Dan Edens
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=bbeaman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Bill Beaman
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003 7:39
AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full time
private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Dan,
Did you develop the mechanical system yourself or
is it one 'off the shelf'? Would you share the name or the
system?
Thanks
Bill Beaman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Dan
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, January 16, 2003 8:34
AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full time
private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Nick-
I have been trading off and on for about 10
years, both privately and as a CTA for a time. I am definatley on the short
end of the net zero game as a whole, but my dream of being a full time
trader has been revitalized and is on the way to being realized in the last
year.
Who knows, I may blow up the account and have
to start over again at some point, but my experience in trading tells
me I've finally found what works for me. I think that is the key - what
works for each trader. I spent what feels like a lifetime with everything in
the trading world that didn't work for me.
I disagree that one must switch markets to be
consistently successful. If any market has the characteristics of orderly
accumulation and distribution and sufficient liquidity, then it can
be consistently traded.The markets on the U.S. futures and equity
exchanges offer too many issues and markets that exhibit these
characteristics for me to consider trading more than just the cream of the
crop. I don't think it is necessary to switch from domestic to foreign
markets and from equities to futures to be successful - there are so many
market personalities within each of those sectors, that the opportunities
are far more than I have the capacity to consider.
For me it would be ludicrous to ignore either
the long or short side of the market because it would mean giving up half
the potential profits. I use a 100% mechanical system developed with
Metastock that averages 76% winners. It's not perfect, but it backtested an
average gain of 240% annually over the last 2 years and is perfoming as
advertised in real trading.
For me the clouds have lifted and I can finally
see the dream of being a full time successful trader on the way to being
realized.
Dan Edens
From: <A title=zaiguy@xxxxxxxxx
href="">Nick Leong
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 15, 2003
4:29 PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Full time
private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi group,
I’ve been reading some
articles about the hedge fund management industry and how most funds
sustained losses over the past 2 years especially since Sept 11 and the US
corporate scandal. This is coupled with a statistic I read that most
novice traders leave the trading arena after about 3 months. These events
really got me thinking… … is it really possible for one to be a full time
private trader?
I’ve been trading privately
for about 4 years not and like most of you I’ve had my ups and downs. I am
a firm believer that trading the market is a zero sum game. Someone MUST
lose in order for me to make a gain. However, the law of averages dictates
that it is just not possible for anyone to be winning all the time. That
being the case, is it actually possible for anyone to be a full time
private trader (i.e. trade using only his own money and make a living out
of it)?
The only possible way for one
to make money is possibly to be engaged in the right market at the right
time, e.g. to switch between the equities/futures/derivatives markets or
switch between the US/Europe/Asian markets. But we must also remember that
a private trader does not have the resources or the mental capacity to
handle so much information or research at a single time. What option would
be left then? To specialise and trade only in specific markets and sit
things out when everything is not going well? Do not forget that a
downturn in the market can last for years.
We can go into the nitty
gritty and say that we must set up stops to prevent losses, but I’m sure
most of you have been in the situation where you were stopped out too
early or you had given so much room before being stopped out that you
suffered a painful loss. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that trading and
investing is an art and there is no one mechanical way of getting the
right results. Ultimately, we are all looking for one thing… …PROFITS.
However, I have come under the increasing impression that the odds are
severely stacked against the private trader.
I look forward to hearing from
you guys on this matter.
Thanks.
<SPAN lang=EN-GB
>Nick
Leong
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