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The Nay Sayers who argue that it won't work because "Future Data" is
required are correct, of course, but also way off base. I think the
Naysayers should instead be asking, "WHY IS IT SO LUCRATIVE WITH OLD
HISTORICAL DATA" In actual fact, this profit test runs from the left
side of the chart where OLD HISTORICAL data begins showing
spectacular profits almost immediately. There is simply NO future
data to be found at the left end of the chart. Right? Of course ! !
That "Future Data" argument does not apply until we get to the right
side of the chart. The formula just can't be used to make real money
because a signal for today won't come for another 10 days. Yet this
lucrative formula cannot be dismissed. Why does it work so well with
old historical data?????? And just HOW profitable? 125 stcks picked
at random had 125 profits, and NO losers. Some profits ran $1,000
into $225,000 in just a few years. Only the Metastock "Maximum Profit
System" provides equal or greater profits.
I was always really pissed off at Equis for keeping their "Maximum
Profit System" a secret. We know it can't be used to make real money,
so why keep it a secret??? Can't we can all learn at least something
from every formula we look at? Shame on Equis for hiding their
formula.
Now to answer your own question. The "Grail" formula is nothing more
than the guts from the DPO(periods) formula which is the Detrended
Price Oscillator.
Put this into your system testor:
ENTER LONG:
DPO(20)< 0 AND Cross(DPO(25),Mov(DPO(25),3,S))
CLOSE LONG:
DPO(20) > 0 AND Cross(Mov(DPO(25),3,S),DPO(25))
You will see the same stunning profits on OLD historical data which
has nothing to do with future data ( until we hit the right side of
the chart ).
To see why this is so amazingly profitable, make a custom indicator:
Title: DETREND WITH TRIGGER
DPO(20);
mov(dpo,3,s);
0; {centerline}
With this custom formula displayed on the screen, we can better see
WHY it works.... Now the goal for this astute group of traders is to
find out why it works and then modify it to work better. And I think
the KEY is in properly defining and using the CYCLE of the underlying
stock. Clearly detrend has an EXCELLENT grip on the stock cycle.
The journey of 1,000 miles consists of 1 little step at a time.
Detrend is a great 1st step which proves that at least something is
consistently profitable, even if it is flawed. Consider that several
things equal to the same thing are equal to each other.
To answer another question, I'm sure that Detrend can be just as
profitable or even MORE profitable than the Equis "Maximum Profit
System" by tweaking the DPO periods.
Grizz
--- In equismetastock@xxxx, "robert@xxxx" <robert@xxxx> wrote:
> praktikus:
>
> Could you give some detail on the adaptive moving average
> that you are using? Did you write some Metastock code for
> it? Would you mind sharing it?
>
> Thanks.
>
> Bob
>
>
>
> Original Message:
> -----------------
> From: praktikus_ms mluescher@xxxx
> Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 19:32:52 -0000
> To: equismetastock@xxxx
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Huge System Test Profits
>
>
> Hi grizz
>
> did you compare your system with the "MAXIMUM PROFIT" System that
> came with MS? Guess the profits would even increase ...
>
> Honestly said wouldn't it be perfect for all of us to know exactly
> where that the price of a stock (option, future, name what you want
> to) is in a month, a week, a day or even by the end of the day.
Sure
> thing we all would be much better in our trading. Unfortunately we
> all can't see what will happen in the future. For tjis reason any
> system using Ref( , plus value) will not work out in reality.
>
> How can you say that none of your tests worked with a positive
> result? If this was true, none of the traders would be around by
now.
> For my own small piece of fortune I trade a moving average System
as
> explained by Perry Kaufman in "Smarter Trading" (the adaptive
moving
> average) with European bonds (comming from Europe so please excuse
my
> typing) and it works out pretty well. Maybe you share some of your
> thoughts so we can improve the thing for better?
>
> Greets, praktikus
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxx, grizz003 <no_reply@xxxx> wrote:
> > You are right, of course. But that is not the point of this
system
> > test. The point of this test is this: It is extremely profitable
> as
> > a system test when using REAL data that already exists in the
> array.
> > It's moving average is shifted left to match the stock's cycle.
> Why
> > is it so fantastically profitable using REAL data? And even more
> > important, why is everything else so consistently UNprofitable
> using
> > REAL data in the array?
> >
> > Why is this so fantastically profitable?? In my opinion, because
it
> > is based on the REAL cycle of the stock under test. Why is
nothing
> > else profitable? Because nearly everything else is based on
cycles
> > that are LATE or do not exist.
> >
> > So we can all agree that this system test is less than perfect,
and
> > it cannot be used as is for real money trading. The value here is
> to
> > show that at least SOMETHING can produce spectacular profits on
> real
> > data. It is perhaps the best starting point to investigate why it
> > makes money, and what can be done to fix it's problem. A
profitable
> > approach can lead to better profitable approaches.
> >
> > Grizz
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxx, "praktikus_ms" <mluescher@xxxx> wrote:
> > > I see just one little thing to cause some worries: the Ref() -
> > > function used looks in to the future (dd1 = 20 --> 20/2+1=11 --
>
> > this
> > > means that you look 11 days in to the future from today - what
is
> > > impossible to me as far as I know ;-) ). For this reason you
> > wouldn't
> > > be able to trade this system.
> > >
> > > praktikus
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@xxxx, grizz003 <no_reply@xxxx> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Can anyone beat the fantastic system test profits generated
> from
> > > > these formulas?
> > > >
> > > > Enter Long:
> > > > ==================
> > > > dd1:=20;dd2:=25;
> > > > grail1:= C-Ref(Mov(C,dd1,S),dd1/2+1);
> > > > grail2:= C-Ref(Mov(C,dd2,S),dd2/2+1);
> > > > grail1 < 0 AND Cross(grail2,Mov(grail2,3,S))
> > > >
> > > > Close Long:
> > > > ==================
> > > > dd1:=20;dd2:=25;
> > > > grail1:= C-Ref(Mov(C,dd1,S),dd1/2+1);
> > > > grail2:= C-Ref(Mov(C,dd2,S),dd2/2+1);
> > > > grail1 > 0 AND Cross(Mov(grail2,3,S),grail2)
> > > >
> > > > Set System test for Longs Only. No stops.
> > > >
> > > > Grizz
>
>
>
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