RE: [Metastockusers] Re: shudder - why???

["Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2>Rakesh, Preston 
,
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2> 
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2>You cannot change or steer the 
market. Trying to is a very expensive lesson. You must listen to what the market 
tells you and follow its lead. Currently it is telling you to be Short. With all 
the volatility (the Dow, despite a 500 point swing this week, is now back aprox 
where it started!! ) close attention must be placed on stops, targets and money 
management. The "Bottom" is not likely something you will clearly see until well 
after the fact. I do not focus much energy on trying to pick the bottom instead 
I try to follow the general direction of the overall markets. That direction for 
some time now has been DOWN. John Murphy (I think) once said that "A trend is in 
place until such time as that is no longer the case" . While simplistic, his 
words ring very true in this market. For several years EVERY SINGLE RALLY has 
failed. I am sure there are members of this group who have made money on the 
long side of the market in the past year. From my perspective it has been a 
whole easier to make money Short.........
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2> 
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2>fwiw
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2> 
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2>jayson
<FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=336195114-04102002> On the dot 
Preston.Exactly the issue which should be the focus of 
ourattentions, how do we trade the present circumstances.While 
Dusant may be worried about the fall out of thepresent goings on, I would 
very humbly submit, it isas Pring says no more than a correction to all 
theexcesses of the past. Given the quantum of theexcesses the correction 
is also of equally severeproportions. That is all there is to it. So do we 
needto get exercised over it? Not really if we are traderswith accss to 
free and open markets. The problem for us Indians is we dont have 
thisprivelege given all the baggage of our socialist past,which we still 
carry. That however is besides thepoint, the fact still remains markets are 
selfcorrecting, and continually evolving - free marketsthat is. We just 
need to know as Preston put it veryaptly-how do i trade it(the current 
scenario).So why shudder?Rakesh--- Preston 
Umrysh <pumrysh@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:> Guys,> > Not to 
add to the quagmire here but Alan Greenspan> called > this 
"irrational exuberence". Doesn't matter what> its called as long > 
as we can first identify it and second capitalize> from it without 
> being taken to the cleaners. > > Cool, I feel for you! 
Let's hope that cooler heads> will prevail and > we won't see an 
international world that is all torn> apart.> > Each of you 
have very valid points. The question in> my mind is how do > I 
trade it?> > P > > > --- In 
Metastockusers@xxxx, "Lionel Issen"> <lissen@xxxx> wrote:> 
> Pring:> > > > The chaos that Dusant refers to is not 
the same as> mathematical > chaos.  I> > think that 
Mandlebrot chose a poor word when he> called his > 
mathematics> > "chaos theory".  He should have called it> 
something like "abrupt > change> > theory". In your email you 
are nitpicking,> incorrectly, at someone > who is is> > 
very knowledgeable and perceptive.> > > > Lionel 
Issen> > > > -----Original Message-----> > From: 
Pring [mailto:pring99@xxxx]> > Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 12:22 
AM> > To: Metastockusers@xxxx> > Subject: [Metastockusers] 
shudder - why???> > > > > > Dusant,> > 
> > First of all, interesting choice of words -> 
"chaotic> > conditions".  Bill Williams describes chaos as 
a> > "higher sense of order".> > > > With that in 
mind, stop and think for a minute> about> > the excesses that 
occurred in the last bull> market.> > It was out of control to 
say the least.  People> who> > knew nothing about trading 
could toss a dart and> make> > money on some internet stock 
that was doubling in> a> > week - on a company that never 
turned a dime in> > profits.  People's retirement accounts 
were> advancing> > beyond what anyone had ever experienced. 
> Valuations> > were off the map.> > > > 
What did you think was going to happen to that> kind of> > 
market?> > > > Take a look at the attached MS chart of the 
S&P> back> > to 1985 (that was all the data I had).  
You can> see> > that all we are doing is returning to a sense 
of> order> > here.> > > > So, my suggestion 
is still to lighten up and flow> > along with the market.  Smile 
a little!> > > > Pring> > > > 
_____________________> > > > > > > > 
Point 1)> >   Its not because of "my" Fib Projections that 
we> are> > witnessing chaotic> >   
conditions. Its because of the chaotic> conditions> > created 
that> >   (probably) the Fib Proj could come true.> 
> > >   Point 2)> >   Is it not what 
public opinion is all about? Why> show> > my chart to 
your> >   Representatives? Think about the enormous 
loss> of> > life and damage to> >   
property these actions are going to cause!!> > > 
>   Pring, I can take a dig at myself, no issues> 
there.> > > >   Frankly, however, this matter does 
not make me> > smile.> > > >   
Dusant> > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups 
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