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This
looks like it was true in the past. I wonder if the same will hold true now due
to aging baby boomers leaving the job market. In addition, there has been a lot
of deficit spending and job creation due to the attack and the war that may
cause an aberration.
<FONT face=Arial color=#008080
size=4>
<FONT face=Arial color=#008080
size=4>neo
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style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #008080 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From:
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of T.E.M. LockefeerSent: Wednesday, March 13, 2002 4:33
AMTo: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Fw: Chart of the
Day - March 13, 2002
Hello friends,
i thought i share this very
interesting chart with you :
Conclusions i draw from it
:
1) USA recession is over , but
dubbel dip recession is still " a possibility".
2) Someone who knew this beforehand
(2000!) would have been
"priviliged"
.
3) watching fundamental
indicators kan be very usefull.
Greetings
Theo Lockefeer.
- NBER
(National Bureau of Economic Research) is the official arbiter of
recessions.
-
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines a recession as: "a period of reduced
economic activity."- Some refer to a recession a two consecutive quarters
of negative GDP growth but that is in fact a rule of
thumb.
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<FONT face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"
size=3>Chart of the Day<FONT
face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" size=2>Is the recession
over? Today's chart suggests that the recession is not only
over, but that it ended in December 2001 (give or take a
month). How so? The chart below is a plot of the 12-month
change in the unemployment rate since 1950. Each time the
unemployment rate shot up 1.5% over a 12-month period a
recession was underway, whereas a peak above 1.5% marked the
end of the recession. So while there is always the
possibility of a "double dip" recession, for now, the
remarkably resilient US economy appears to be on the mend.
Stay tuned...<FONT
face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" size=1>Notes:- NBER
(National Bureau of Economic Research) is the official
arbiter of recessions.- The Merriam-Webster Dictionary
defines a recession as: "a period of reduced economic
activity."- Some refer to a recession a two consecutive
quarters of negative GDP growth but that is in fact a rule
of thumb.
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