Fw: Chart of the Day - March 13, 2002

["T.E.M. Lockefeer" <sky40912@xxxxxxxxx>]

Hello friends,
 
i thought i share this very 
interesting chart with you :
 
Conclusions i draw from it 
:
 
1) USA recession is over , but dubbel 
dip recession is still " a possibility".
 
2) Someone who knew this beforehand 
(2000!) would have been
   "priviliged"  
.
 
3) watching  fundamental 
indicators kan be very usefull.
 
 
Greetings
 
Theo Lockefeer.
 
- NBER 
(National Bureau of Economic Research) is the official arbiter of 
recessions.
- The 
Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines a recession as: "a period of reduced economic 
activity."- Some refer to a recession a two consecutive quarters of negative 
GDP growth but that is in fact a rule of thumb.
 
 
 
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                Chart 
                  of the Day<FONT 
                  face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" size=2>Is the recession 
                  over? Today's chart suggests that the recession is not only 
                  over, but that it ended in December 2001 (give or take a 
                  month). How so? The chart below is a plot of the 12-month 
                  change in the unemployment rate since 1950. Each time the 
                  unemployment rate shot up 1.5% over a 12-month period a 
                  recession was underway, whereas a peak above 1.5% marked the 
                  end of the recession. So while there is always the possibility 
                  of a "double dip" recession, for now, the remarkably resilient 
                  US economy appears to be on the mend. Stay 
                  tuned...<FONT 
                  face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" size=1>Notes:- NBER 
                  (National Bureau of Economic Research) is the official arbiter 
                  of recessions.- The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines a 
                  recession as: "a period of reduced economic activity."- 
                  Some refer to a recession a two consecutive quarters of 
                  negative GDP growth but that is in fact a rule of 
                  thumb.
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