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Yes, I'd agree with Dan. Miner (Dynamic Trading ) is a good read. There is
also a free tutorial on he web at you guessed www.elliottwave.com which I
guess was authored by Prectcher.
Come back to me privately if want more info on Miner's book and its content.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan Harels" <harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 6:34 AM
Subject: Re: Robert Prechter's Books
> If I am not mistaken, Mr. Pretcher is an Elliot Wave expert. I have seen
> Robert Minor's book "Dynamic Trading" recommended over Pretcher's work as
a
> practical guide to Elliot Wave. I have Minor's book and have found it
> valuable. I do not have direct experience with Pretcher's work. Copied
> below is a post from Scot Billington that appeared on the Real Trader's
list
> over a year ago. I thought it was good enough to save. It gives some
> interesting perspective on Pretcher and Elliot Wave theory.
>
> Dan
>
> Those of you who are beginning or contemplating studying EW you my find my
> experience helpful.
>
> I worked as an analyst using primarily EW for seven years. My job roughly
> ten hours a day was to study EW and apply the counts to various markets.
> During this period I would claim that I developed an above average to
> excellent ability to apply an EW count and alternates to a market within
the
> rules laid out in Prechter's book.
>
> In my opinion while these counts did sometimes produce Nostradomus-like
> market 'calls', they were not useful in making trading decisions. They
were
> closer to a neat magic trick than a trading tool. The major problem I
have
> with EW is who said the original premise is valid in the first place. Mr.
> Elliott made some grandiose claims and offered up an interesting theory
that
> makes some sense under the heading of mass behavior. This theory can not
be
> tested due to its subjectivity. I must choose between time frames, close
> only or bar charts, continuous, Gann, or individual charts. If I am using
a
> bar chart, I must decide what makes a wave. Due to this subjectivity,
there
> is no way to test Elliott's original premise that the markets move in five
> and three wave patterns. Nor is there any way to test if the patterns of
> the market must fit into the 13 (I think) different possible patterns laid
> out. So, basically, we have a gentleman making a claim that can not be
> verified or refuted.
>
> Certainly, some moves have ended on five waves, but they have to end on
> something. And a move of more than one wave must end in an odd number by
> definition. A five wave move with and extension can be five, nine,
> thirteen, seventeen etc. waves. Every other odd number. Therefore, half
> the moves must end in a five wave pattern. Even if EW is not valid, I am
> going to be 'correct' with my five wave count 50% of the time. The
method
> allows moves to end on three waves with its irregulars or by the larger
> pattern being A-B-C. Therefore, I can end on three or five with and
> extension in any of the waves of either. That covers all the bases.
>
> Undoubtedly, there are those who have claimed to have made money trading
the
> EW. I would contend that while they made money (if indeed they did), they
> may not know WHY they made money. EW may only generate random entry
> signals, but they may use strong exit strategies and sound money
management.
> By using strong exit techniques and good money management, one can take a
> random entry and make handsome profits. Even if they use EW to make their
> exit decisions, it is not necessarily the EW count that makes those
> strategies strong. Each part of the method needs to be tested
> independently, to show its effect. EW can not be tested in any way.
> Therefore, we can not know if it is or is not valid.
>
> (A good example of someone who makes a ton of money, but does not know why
> is a hypothetical profitable floor trader. Let's say he makes $2 million
a
> year using method X. Wow, method X must be great. But the floor trader
> trades 2000 contracts per day 200 days per year. He also has the floor
> advantage of buying at the bid and selling at the offer. The spread is 1
> tic each tic is worth $20, so he makes $10 per contract vs. the value
which
> is between the bid and the asked. $10*2000*200=$4,000,000. So, his edge
> over the market is not in method X; it is in the b/a spread.)
>
> Its is my opinion that a beginner should look elsewhere for a trading
> method. If they are completely intent on trying EW, I would suggest that
> they find a mentor who has used EW to successfully make profits in the
> market not to write a book, although those are not necessarily mutually
> exclusive. Furthermore, I would take a hard look at the mentor's profits
to
> see if they are being generated by something other than the EW counts.
>
> A note of caution. EW does allow one to make some remarkable market
> predictions whether these occur randomly or not. The method contends that
> it has figured out the secrets not only of the markets but of existence.
> These predictions give one a feeling of omniscience and a surge of power;
> therefore, this method of trading is appealing to those with a
narcissistic
> personality style. This personality style is marked by extremely
grandiose
> statements, which Mr. Elliott certainly made about his 'discovery'. Mr
> Prechter has exhibited traits of this personality style as well. The
narc.
> style puts a lot of its self-worth on the idea of being 'right' and may
not
> take opposing views or questions very well. This style is generally not
> conducive to long-term (>10 years) successful trading. If you decide to
try
> to study under someone, do not believe the hype.
>
> If you have any questions, feel free to e-mail me personally.
>
> Scot Billington
>
> >From: "Corey Saxe" <csaxe@xxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: "MetaStock List" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Robert Prechter's Books
> >Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 19:35:48 -0800
> >
> >I don't know anything about this guy but have seen some of his books for
> >sale.
> >Can anyone who has read some of his material give me their impression?
> >
> >Thanks,
> >-Corey Saxe
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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