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Al,
This has been very helpful. I'm getting a much better idea of how to
interpret r-squared & Linear Regression Slope.
TXN is also a good example of a trading rather than trending stock - showing
how this affects the indicators.
I've got a good starting point now.
If you do decide to send further examples off the list, I'd be grateful for
a copy.
Thank you very much,
Sean
----- Original Message -----
From: "Al Taglavore" <altag@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, February 05, 2001 9:56 AM
Subject: Re: Trendiness or Congestion measurement - r-squared + Linear
regression Slope
> Yes, I think of Slope as the direction. The value indicates the degree of
> advance/decline. R-squared is a measurement or "presence of trend", as I
> use it. I just completed a trade on DD that could paint a picture to aid
> in interpretation. If you will pull up the chart DD, open a 23 period
> r-squared indicator
> (I use the oscillator style of display), then overlay a 13 period slope
> (line display), observe the period around 12/29. You will see how the
> slope began the decline while "r" was still at a high value. When "r"
> began to weaken, with Slope still in a downward movement, the first close
> below the lowest low of that period (1-3) made a low risk entry for a
short
> sale. When Slope turned up for two consecutive days (1-24) and "r" was
> above 80, this was, for me, time to cover the short.
>
> I am also using a 23 period slope to observe the 13/23 crossing, but I
have
> not seen any significant benefit. Actually, I think this confuses the
> picture.
>
> As to your comment that Slope moves all over the place, that would suggest
> to me that there is very high volatility in that stock,or a tradable
trend
> is not in place. Please send me a stock symbol so that I may plot what
you
> are seeing. I am watching TXN, but the Slope signals have been late. But
> here again, there is no trend, as I see it. Rather, it is in a trading
> range. Again, this is simply way that I use the two indicators.
>
> Al Taglavore
>
> ----------
> > From: Sean Taylor <sean.taylor@xxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Trendiness or Congestion measurement - r-squared + Linear
> regression Slope
> > Date: Sunday, February 04, 2001 11:24 PM
> >
> > Al,
> > I've been trying to combine r-squared with Linear Regression Slope. Not
> > always easy determining how to interpret them.
> > I know r-squared values below a certain amount mean there is no
> statistical
> > significance. But with larger numbers, the Slope value can still move
all
> > over the place. Is it more the direction of the slope rather than the
> value
> > itself?
> > It's probably just trial and error.
> > Thanks,
> > Sean
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Al Taglavore" <altag@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, February 02, 2001 11:02 AM
> > Subject: Re: Trendiness or Congestion measurement
> >
> >
> > > Consider using 'r-squared' with regression slope; "r" indicating the
> > > strength of the trend, sans noise, and the slope to indicate the
> direction
> > > of the trend.
> > >
> > > Al Taglavore
> > >
> > > ----------
> > > > From: Sean Taylor <sean.taylor@xxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: Metastock List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Subject: Trendiness or Congestion measurement
> > > > Date: Friday, February 02, 2001 9:09 AM
> > > >
> > > > I've recently re-discovered the quality of the User manual. The
> > > > interpretations of various indicators offer useful advise.
> > > > Take the Stochastic. I'm looking to use Overbought/Oversold
> indicators.
> > > > The manual recommends that these work best in non-trending markets
> and
> > > that
> > > > 'r-squared', CMO and VHF might be used to determine this.
> > > > I tried r-squared (RSquared(C, 14) <0.27) which improved the system
> > > results
> > > > significantly. But it does seem to traverse extremes very readily
> and
> > > give
> > > > false signals.
> > > >
> > > > Are there some favorites out there for indicating congestion or
> > > trendiness
> > > > and their strength ?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Sean
> > >
>
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