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David:
Please clarify the Terminology for me: GARCH, ARCH, GA, NN
If the team from Rice U were successful, they should be reticent. Since they
aren't selling software, books or courses, I suspect that they are
successful.
The book "The Predictors", was too boastful for my tastes.
Thanks for your input.
Lionel Issen
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jennings" <davidjennings@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 4:51 PM
Subject: Re: Artificial Intelligence, expert and neural
> There are quite a few instances of success trading with either GAs or NNs.
I
> must confess, I found The Predictors a bit populist. I'd hoped to get some
> insighst into model structure. Quite a number of the banks put up big
money
> for research into fuzzy networks, GARCH and ARCH. $5M p.a. was a typical
> research budget.
>
> The ultimate Trading Guide is worth a read on how good GAs and NNs are. I
> must admit I'm a great fan of GAs for seeking optimal parameters for an
> indicator over a portfolio. Model structure is very important for trading
a
> market - whatever chaos theory tells us, and thus one can end up with an
> overly complex model which misses the point.
>
> My experience of NNs is that one has to be quite specific about one's
target
> e.g. predicting turning points etc.and then use them in combination. I'm
> convinced that a guy with sound experience in say Fib could do as good a
job
> as any NN. however, Lionel makes a strong point though, the beauty of AI
in
> general is that it can play multiple markets in multiple time frames
> simultaneously - and hence generate super normal gains or losses. There
was
> a group of guys from Rice university (whose names I've forgotten) who
> launched Frontier specialising in pattern recognition. They built trading
> systems and played the markets. The very absence of research papers from
> them suggests that they were successful!
>
> DJ
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 8:03 PM
> Subject: Re: Artificial Intelligence, expert and neural
>
>
> > Jeff:
> > A few years ago I read that the Bankers Trust of NY was spending a mint
> on
> > such things like neural nets, artificial intelligence and chaos systems.
> > Last year the Deusche Bank bought them out and like many foreign
companies
> > they are very secretive, and wont give an outsider the time of day. So
> there
> > is no way of finding out how successful these methods are.While current
> > daily prices are available on the net, charts are not.
> >
> > There was a recent book "The Predictors" about a group in the southwest
> (New
> > Mexico?) who were/are successful at this trading in esoteric
instruments.
> My
> > feeling is that if they were very successful, they'd make someone like
> > Buffett look like a penny ante player.
> > Lionel Issen
> > lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jeff Haferman" <haferman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 11:51 AM
> > Subject: Re: Artificial Intelligence, expert and neural
> >
> >
> > >
> > > http://www.emsl.pnl.gov:2080/proj/neuron/neural/systems/shareware.html
> > >
> > > has quite a selection. Neuroforecaster/GA is geared specifically
> > > toward financial applications, and you can download a limited
> > > version. The shareware neural net package SNNS probably has the
> > > best reputation.
> > >
> > > But you're going to spend a lot of time training and tuning any
> > > expert system or neural net. The results I've seen indicate that
> > > neural nets are great at learning about past market activity,
> > > but I haven't seen any convincing results that show that
> > > they do better than random at predicting future activity.
> > >
> > > Jos Carlos Duarte Areia wrote:
> > > >I'm looking for this subject, anyone knows the best sites and
> softwares
> > (I
> > > >found any at TASC 2000 page 19, bonus issue)to look for ?
> > > >Thanks JCarlos
> > >
> >_________________________________________________________________________
> > > >Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
> http://www.hotmail.com.
> > > >
> >
> >
>
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