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There are quite a few instances of success trading with either GAs or NNs. I
must confess, I found The Predictors a bit populist. I'd hoped to get some
insighst into model structure. Quite a number of the banks put up big money
for research into fuzzy networks, GARCH and ARCH. $5M p.a. was a typical
research budget.
The ultimate Trading Guide is worth a read on how good GAs and NNs are. I
must admit I'm a great fan of GAs for seeking optimal parameters for an
indicator over a portfolio. Model structure is very important for trading a
market - whatever chaos theory tells us, and thus one can end up with an
overly complex model which misses the point.
My experience of NNs is that one has to be quite specific about one's target
e.g. predicting turning points etc.and then use them in combination. I'm
convinced that a guy with sound experience in say Fib could do as good a job
as any NN. however, Lionel makes a strong point though, the beauty of AI in
general is that it can play multiple markets in multiple time frames
simultaneously - and hence generate super normal gains or losses. There was
a group of guys from Rice university (whose names I've forgotten) who
launched Frontier specialising in pattern recognition. They built trading
systems and played the markets. The very absence of research papers from
them suggests that they were successful!
DJ
----- Original Message -----
From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 8:03 PM
Subject: Re: Artificial Intelligence, expert and neural
> Jeff:
> A few years ago I read that the Bankers Trust of NY was spending a mint
on
> such things like neural nets, artificial intelligence and chaos systems.
> Last year the Deusche Bank bought them out and like many foreign companies
> they are very secretive, and wont give an outsider the time of day. So
there
> is no way of finding out how successful these methods are.While current
> daily prices are available on the net, charts are not.
>
> There was a recent book "The Predictors" about a group in the southwest
(New
> Mexico?) who were/are successful at this trading in esoteric instruments.
My
> feeling is that if they were very successful, they'd make someone like
> Buffett look like a penny ante player.
> Lionel Issen
> lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jeff Haferman" <haferman@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 06, 2001 11:51 AM
> Subject: Re: Artificial Intelligence, expert and neural
>
>
> >
> > http://www.emsl.pnl.gov:2080/proj/neuron/neural/systems/shareware.html
> >
> > has quite a selection. Neuroforecaster/GA is geared specifically
> > toward financial applications, and you can download a limited
> > version. The shareware neural net package SNNS probably has the
> > best reputation.
> >
> > But you're going to spend a lot of time training and tuning any
> > expert system or neural net. The results I've seen indicate that
> > neural nets are great at learning about past market activity,
> > but I haven't seen any convincing results that show that
> > they do better than random at predicting future activity.
> >
> > Jos Carlos Duarte Areia wrote:
> > >I'm looking for this subject, anyone knows the best sites and
softwares
> (I
> > >found any at TASC 2000 page 19, bonus issue)to look for ?
> > >Thanks JCarlos
> >
>_________________________________________________________________________
> > >Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com.
> > >
>
>
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