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neo, in defense of VV, you must be paying attention to his commentary. I
don't look at that, but you guys are probably pressuring him to abandon his
system, he's doing so, and making bad calls.
Looking at his systems the last 3-4 months gives the following for the
market
:
MTI said buy (above 1.0) on 8/17, then said sell on 9/15/00 and has been in
"down" position ever since to this day.
Market Trend said "C/Up" on 9/1/00 and then had a confirmed down ("C/Dn") on
9/18/00 and has been and still is in the "down" position.
I fail to see what is wrong with the above, except, as I said before, its
a little slow.
VV individual stock timing system is a trend system. It won't work in a
volatile sideways market. It will work in a down trending market only if
you go short.
Like it or not, we are still in a momentum market. The momentum right now
though is DOWN.
Tom
----- Original Message -----
From: "neo" <neo1@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, December 23, 2000 1:02 PM
Subject: RE: VV timing
> Tom
>
> You really have to look at Dr. D's latest calls, the timing system and the
> comments on the VV board. He has been long the past 3 months even though
all
> his signals are short. He is now having people sell on various MA's
instead
> of the sell signal. His system worked well during the recent bull market
> (what didn't) but is not working now.
>
> I have had the program for 6 months. It took about 2 to find out his
timing
> and strategies did not work. I have since spent a great deal of time with
MS
> developing my own timing system and my own strategies in VV which in back
> testing are highly profitable. I am fine tuning all this as well as my
exits
> and expect to go live after the first. We will see what happens with real
> money.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Sprunger
> Sent: Saturday, December 23, 2000 10:48 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: VV timing
>
>
> neo, I looked at all the market (nasdaq is the proxy) turns in the last
> three years that were greater than 15%. VV hit them all, but many of them
> weren't called until it was obvious the trend had changed ( by the time VV
> MKT Trend indicator called a top the NASDAQ had already dropped an average
> of 7%. by the time it called a bottom the DAQ had already risen an average
> of 21%). So, they can call them but they aren't necessarily "timely" in
the
> calls. In my opinion, the word "timely" is the key and they don't make
any
> claims (that I am aware of) as to how timely the call is.
>
> For indivdual stocks I had worse results with VV. By the time VV gave a
> sell signal, the average stock had already dropped an average of 22% and
by
> the time it gave a buy signal it had already risen an average of 30%.
This
> doesn't mean you can't make money with VV, just that there are ways to
make
> more money.
>
> So, that is my basis for saying there are many ways to do better on timing
> of individual stocks. I have assumed in my comments that this being a
> Metastock board, most readers were advanced way beyond the VV timing
system
> for individual stocks. But as you say, each person should develop his own
> strategies to make money and use whatever makes her/him comfortable.
>
> By the way, care to share how VV has done for you this year? Are you in
the
> black? Your input on this might help me change mine and others opinion on
> VV.
>
> Tom
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "neo" <neo1@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 7:36 PM
> Subject: RE: VV timing
>
>
> > It depends on how you studied their timing. Their published results do
not
> > agree with the calls they made at the time. They fudge their published
> > timing calls in hindsight to made it look good. Many users have studied
> this
> > including myself.
> >
> > Although their timing system is poor it is the best system for picking
> > stocks that I have found but you have to develop your own strategies.
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Sprunger
> > Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 4:09 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: VV timing
> >
> >
> > I have studied VV timing claims and found they do do pretty well on
timing
> > the market. That isIF/WHEN they make a call, its right. Sometimes its
> > obvious though by the time they make the call. However, they don't do
so
> > well on timing individual stocks. Their stock timing system is
basically
> a
> > 65 day (if I remember correctlyl) Moving Average with some kind of magic
> > accelerator. From my analysis, it comes out to be about the same as a
50
> > day MA crossover. You can do better with simple trend lines.
> >
> > Tom
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "David DeFina" <ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 10:10 AM
> > Subject: RE: To MetaStock Re: Portfolio Tester
> >
> >
> > > Neo:
> > >
> > > I Have a copy of VectorVest, but haven't been able to find any 3rd
party
> > > recommendations on its usefulness. I didn't want to waste time on
> > something
> > > that doesn't have value. They say they've called every major market
> turn
> > > for so many years, but I couldn't tell if that was from back testing
or
> > real
> > > time? Have you had a good experience with it, or know of a group of
> happy
> > > users? Thanks, Dave D.
> > >
> > >
> > > ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > Behalf Of neo
> > > Sent: Dec 22, 2000 5:45 AM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: To MetaStock Re: Portfolio Tester
> > >
> > > Take a look at VectorVest.
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of David DeFina
> > > Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 6:05 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > > Importance: High
> > >
> > >
> > > I second the suggestion of being able to system test multiple stocks
at
> > > once.
> > >
> > > It would also be nice to run an "expert" report on multiple stocks and
> > have
> > > a summary page print with commentaries, etc.
> > >
> > > Dave DeFina
> > > ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > Behalf Of Bill Irwin
> > > Sent: Dec 21, 2000 12:38 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > >
> > > How about making it an option that a user can choose to turn on, or
not.
> > I
> > > know with a 600 Mhz P3 I'd far rather have my Explorations take twice
as
> > > long than spend all the extra time applying attributes after the fact.
> > The
> > > faster the PC the less impact on the user.
> > >
> > > Thanks for giving us some faint hope here. While we're at it, any
> chance
> > at
> > > all that we'll see a System test that can work on a portfolio of
stocks?
> > > What I visualize is a stock level report screen that shows the most
> > > profitable stock from the run. A double click on the stock would take
> us
> > to
> > > the current report screen with all the permutations, if optimization
was
> > > used. This would be an excellent way of finding the stocks that
respond
> > > well to a particular System.
> > >
> > > Thanks again for the input.
> > >
> > > Bill
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of PD Manager
> > > > Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 9:55 AM
> > > > To: 'metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > J.
> > > >
> > > > Hint taken.
> > > >
> > > > We have been exploring this possibility for quite awhile. It
> > > > MAY possibly
> > > > show up in a future version, but I'm making no promises. The
> > > > problem with
> > > > adding the capability to manipulate attributes in a formula
> > > > (color, style
> > > > etc) is that it will slow down the native number crunching
> > > > capability of the
> > > > formulas.
> > > >
> > > > If we add this ability to the formula language, it will only
> > > > be done if we
> > > > can minimize the impact on basic mathematical operation performance.
> > > >
> > > > Ken Hunt
> > > > Programming Manager
> > > > Equis International
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: j seed [mailto:jseed_10@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 12:05 AM
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dave,
> > > > I am completely lost with your explanation. I know that I can plot a
> > > > multicolored oscillator...green for increasing and red for
> > > > declining simply
> > > > by using an if statement to plot or not plot(value zero).
> > > > This works with an
> > > >
> > > > oscillator simply because I can plot to a value of zero. I
> > > > can also plot a
> > > > third indicator simply by adding a moving average into the
> > > > formula. This
> > > > still requires that I manually select the colors that I
> > > > desire for each and
> > > > yes I can simply this operation by assigning all of this to a
> > > > template.
> > > > But...I still cannot assign the color in the formula which is
> > > > what I thought
> > > >
> > > > the question was(wouldn't that be nice! Metastock can you
> > > > take a hint?).
> > > > Beyond this point your explanation has me lost. So...if you
> > > > don't mind would
> > > >
> > > > you give us some more detail?
> > > >
> > > > J.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >From: Dave Nadeau <dave_nadeau@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > > >Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > > > >Date: Wed, 20 Dec 2000 23:18:50 -0700
> > > > >
> > > > >Bill,
> > > > >
> > > > >There is a faster way. You'll need to use a very structured
> > > > approach.
> > > > >
> > > > >Start with a custom formula with three lines which are
> > > > something like this:
> > > > >
> > > > >LineA:=<time period one>;
> > > > >LineB:=<time period two>;
> > > > >LineC:=<time period three>;
> > > > >Mov(C,LineA,S); Mov(C,LineB,S);Mov(C,LineC,S)
> > > > >...
> > > > >
> > > > >You can later change these to OPT1, OPT2, and OPT3 in your
> > > > system test.
> > > > >
> > > > >Build your next formula based on the first, and give signals
> > > > for enter,
> > > > >short, exit, etc. as 1,2,3,4 or something like that.
> > > > >Then a third formula(Indicator3), based on the second, would use
> > > > >Barssince(<your long signal>)<Barssince(<your short signal>) AND
> > > > >Barssince(<your long signal>)<Barssince(<your exit signal>)
> > > > = 1 for long or
> > > >
> > > > >=-1 for short and =0 for out.
> > > > >
> > > > >Then you can create a fourth custom indicator based on this,
> > > > the equity
> > > > >line. This one says, Cum(If(Indicator3=1,Open-Ref(Open,-
> > > > >1),If(Indicator3=-1,-1*(Open-Ref(Open,-1),0).
> > > > >
> > > > >Now you've got four indicators based on those three variable
> > > > definitions
> > > > >which are easy to change. You can run an exploration with
> > > > >this equity line to guage the performance across a portfolio
> > > > of stocks.
> > > > >
> > > > >You can write an expert that is based on the formulas and a
> > > > template. Your
> > > >
> > > > >arrows for exits and entries as well as the lines
> > > > >themselves will adjust whenever you go back to adjust those
> > > > three first
> > > > >lines of the first indicator.
> > > > >
> > > > >You can also run a new exploration once you've adjusted
> > > > those three values
> > > > >in the formula. You can do this as many times as you'd
> > > > >like.
> > > > >
> > > > >I hope this explanation makes sense. I'm happy to clarify.
> > > > It is quicker,
> > > >
> > > > >but still has some manual steps.
> > > > >
> > > > >Dave Nadeau
> > > > >Fort Collins, CO
> > > > >
> > > > >12/20/00 10:53:21 AM, "Bill Irwin" <Bill-Irwin@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > >Thanks Frans & Steve for the suggestion. Maybe if I'd more fully
> > > > >explained
> > > > > >what I'm doing perhaps another method is available, and
> > > > would be better.
> > > > > >I'm working on a System that's based on this triple plot.
> > > > I'm going to
> > > > >be
> > > > > >optimizing the values of this triple MA and, after the
> > > > test, observe the
> > > > > >most profitable scenario.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >What I'd really like is for the System tester to plot the
> > > > triple MA (in 3
> > > > > >colours) along with the Buy/Sell/Exit signs so that I can
> > > > see the MAs
> > > > > >crossing at these triggers. As it is, it appears I'll
> > > > have to apply the
> > > > > >Triple MA Coloured Template, then adjust the lengths of
> > > > the MAs to match
> > > > >the
> > > > > >winning System (after digging into the winning System to
> > > > see the values
> > > > >of
> > > > > >OPT1/2/3 in a window that can't be sized to avoid the
> > > > extra step and time
> > > >
> > > > >of
> > > > > >scrolling). This doesn't make for a speedy review of a
> > > > given System
> > > > >across
> > > > > >many charts. Of course, having to run the System test on
> > > > each individual
> > > > > >chart (rather than on a selection, as in an Exploration)
> > > > is what really
> > > > > >takes the time.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >If there's a faster way of doing this, please advise, and
> > > > thanks again.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >Dave Nadeau
> > > > >Fort Collins, CO
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >_________________________________________________________
> > > > >Do You Yahoo!?
> > > > >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > > Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
> > >
> >
> >
>
>
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