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Tom
You really have to look at Dr. D's latest calls, the timing system and the
comments on the VV board. He has been long the past 3 months even though all
his signals are short. He is now having people sell on various MA's instead
of the sell signal. His system worked well during the recent bull market
(what didn't) but is not working now.
I have had the program for 6 months. It took about 2 to find out his timing
and strategies did not work. I have since spent a great deal of time with MS
developing my own timing system and my own strategies in VV which in back
testing are highly profitable. I am fine tuning all this as well as my exits
and expect to go live after the first. We will see what happens with real
money.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Sprunger
Sent: Saturday, December 23, 2000 10:48 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: VV timing
neo, I looked at all the market (nasdaq is the proxy) turns in the last
three years that were greater than 15%. VV hit them all, but many of them
weren't called until it was obvious the trend had changed ( by the time VV
MKT Trend indicator called a top the NASDAQ had already dropped an average
of 7%. by the time it called a bottom the DAQ had already risen an average
of 21%). So, they can call them but they aren't necessarily "timely" in the
calls. In my opinion, the word "timely" is the key and they don't make any
claims (that I am aware of) as to how timely the call is.
For indivdual stocks I had worse results with VV. By the time VV gave a
sell signal, the average stock had already dropped an average of 22% and by
the time it gave a buy signal it had already risen an average of 30%. This
doesn't mean you can't make money with VV, just that there are ways to make
more money.
So, that is my basis for saying there are many ways to do better on timing
of individual stocks. I have assumed in my comments that this being a
Metastock board, most readers were advanced way beyond the VV timing system
for individual stocks. But as you say, each person should develop his own
strategies to make money and use whatever makes her/him comfortable.
By the way, care to share how VV has done for you this year? Are you in the
black? Your input on this might help me change mine and others opinion on
VV.
Tom
----- Original Message -----
From: "neo" <neo1@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 7:36 PM
Subject: RE: VV timing
> It depends on how you studied their timing. Their published results do not
> agree with the calls they made at the time. They fudge their published
> timing calls in hindsight to made it look good. Many users have studied
this
> including myself.
>
> Although their timing system is poor it is the best system for picking
> stocks that I have found but you have to develop your own strategies.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Tom Sprunger
> Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 4:09 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: VV timing
>
>
> I have studied VV timing claims and found they do do pretty well on timing
> the market. That isIF/WHEN they make a call, its right. Sometimes its
> obvious though by the time they make the call. However, they don't do so
> well on timing individual stocks. Their stock timing system is basically
a
> 65 day (if I remember correctlyl) Moving Average with some kind of magic
> accelerator. From my analysis, it comes out to be about the same as a 50
> day MA crossover. You can do better with simple trend lines.
>
> Tom
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "David DeFina" <ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, December 22, 2000 10:10 AM
> Subject: RE: To MetaStock Re: Portfolio Tester
>
>
> > Neo:
> >
> > I Have a copy of VectorVest, but haven't been able to find any 3rd party
> > recommendations on its usefulness. I didn't want to waste time on
> something
> > that doesn't have value. They say they've called every major market
turn
> > for so many years, but I couldn't tell if that was from back testing or
> real
> > time? Have you had a good experience with it, or know of a group of
happy
> > users? Thanks, Dave D.
> >
> >
> > ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > Behalf Of neo
> > Sent: Dec 22, 2000 5:45 AM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: To MetaStock Re: Portfolio Tester
> >
> > Take a look at VectorVest.
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of David DeFina
> > Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 6:05 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > Importance: High
> >
> >
> > I second the suggestion of being able to system test multiple stocks at
> > once.
> >
> > It would also be nice to run an "expert" report on multiple stocks and
> have
> > a summary page print with commentaries, etc.
> >
> > Dave DeFina
> > ddefina@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > Behalf Of Bill Irwin
> > Sent: Dec 21, 2000 12:38 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> >
> > How about making it an option that a user can choose to turn on, or not.
> I
> > know with a 600 Mhz P3 I'd far rather have my Explorations take twice as
> > long than spend all the extra time applying attributes after the fact.
> The
> > faster the PC the less impact on the user.
> >
> > Thanks for giving us some faint hope here. While we're at it, any
chance
> at
> > all that we'll see a System test that can work on a portfolio of stocks?
> > What I visualize is a stock level report screen that shows the most
> > profitable stock from the run. A double click on the stock would take
us
> to
> > the current report screen with all the permutations, if optimization was
> > used. This would be an excellent way of finding the stocks that respond
> > well to a particular System.
> >
> > Thanks again for the input.
> >
> > Bill
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of PD Manager
> > > Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 9:55 AM
> > > To: 'metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx'
> > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > >
> > >
> > > J.
> > >
> > > Hint taken.
> > >
> > > We have been exploring this possibility for quite awhile. It
> > > MAY possibly
> > > show up in a future version, but I'm making no promises. The
> > > problem with
> > > adding the capability to manipulate attributes in a formula
> > > (color, style
> > > etc) is that it will slow down the native number crunching
> > > capability of the
> > > formulas.
> > >
> > > If we add this ability to the formula language, it will only
> > > be done if we
> > > can minimize the impact on basic mathematical operation performance.
> > >
> > > Ken Hunt
> > > Programming Manager
> > > Equis International
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: j seed [mailto:jseed_10@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2000 12:05 AM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > >
> > >
> > > Dave,
> > > I am completely lost with your explanation. I know that I can plot a
> > > multicolored oscillator...green for increasing and red for
> > > declining simply
> > > by using an if statement to plot or not plot(value zero).
> > > This works with an
> > >
> > > oscillator simply because I can plot to a value of zero. I
> > > can also plot a
> > > third indicator simply by adding a moving average into the
> > > formula. This
> > > still requires that I manually select the colors that I
> > > desire for each and
> > > yes I can simply this operation by assigning all of this to a
> > > template.
> > > But...I still cannot assign the color in the formula which is
> > > what I thought
> > >
> > > the question was(wouldn't that be nice! Metastock can you
> > > take a hint?).
> > > Beyond this point your explanation has me lost. So...if you
> > > don't mind would
> > >
> > > you give us some more detail?
> > >
> > > J.
> > >
> > >
> > > >From: Dave Nadeau <dave_nadeau@xxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >Subject: RE: Setting colour on a multi-plot indicator
> > > >Date: Wed, 20 Dec 2000 23:18:50 -0700
> > > >
> > > >Bill,
> > > >
> > > >There is a faster way. You'll need to use a very structured
> > > approach.
> > > >
> > > >Start with a custom formula with three lines which are
> > > something like this:
> > > >
> > > >LineA:=<time period one>;
> > > >LineB:=<time period two>;
> > > >LineC:=<time period three>;
> > > >Mov(C,LineA,S); Mov(C,LineB,S);Mov(C,LineC,S)
> > > >...
> > > >
> > > >You can later change these to OPT1, OPT2, and OPT3 in your
> > > system test.
> > > >
> > > >Build your next formula based on the first, and give signals
> > > for enter,
> > > >short, exit, etc. as 1,2,3,4 or something like that.
> > > >Then a third formula(Indicator3), based on the second, would use
> > > >Barssince(<your long signal>)<Barssince(<your short signal>) AND
> > > >Barssince(<your long signal>)<Barssince(<your exit signal>)
> > > = 1 for long or
> > >
> > > >=-1 for short and =0 for out.
> > > >
> > > >Then you can create a fourth custom indicator based on this,
> > > the equity
> > > >line. This one says, Cum(If(Indicator3=1,Open-Ref(Open,-
> > > >1),If(Indicator3=-1,-1*(Open-Ref(Open,-1),0).
> > > >
> > > >Now you've got four indicators based on those three variable
> > > definitions
> > > >which are easy to change. You can run an exploration with
> > > >this equity line to guage the performance across a portfolio
> > > of stocks.
> > > >
> > > >You can write an expert that is based on the formulas and a
> > > template. Your
> > >
> > > >arrows for exits and entries as well as the lines
> > > >themselves will adjust whenever you go back to adjust those
> > > three first
> > > >lines of the first indicator.
> > > >
> > > >You can also run a new exploration once you've adjusted
> > > those three values
> > > >in the formula. You can do this as many times as you'd
> > > >like.
> > > >
> > > >I hope this explanation makes sense. I'm happy to clarify.
> > > It is quicker,
> > >
> > > >but still has some manual steps.
> > > >
> > > >Dave Nadeau
> > > >Fort Collins, CO
> > > >
> > > >12/20/00 10:53:21 AM, "Bill Irwin" <Bill-Irwin@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > >Thanks Frans & Steve for the suggestion. Maybe if I'd more fully
> > > >explained
> > > > >what I'm doing perhaps another method is available, and
> > > would be better.
> > > > >I'm working on a System that's based on this triple plot.
> > > I'm going to
> > > >be
> > > > >optimizing the values of this triple MA and, after the
> > > test, observe the
> > > > >most profitable scenario.
> > > > >
> > > > >What I'd really like is for the System tester to plot the
> > > triple MA (in 3
> > > > >colours) along with the Buy/Sell/Exit signs so that I can
> > > see the MAs
> > > > >crossing at these triggers. As it is, it appears I'll
> > > have to apply the
> > > > >Triple MA Coloured Template, then adjust the lengths of
> > > the MAs to match
> > > >the
> > > > >winning System (after digging into the winning System to
> > > see the values
> > > >of
> > > > >OPT1/2/3 in a window that can't be sized to avoid the
> > > extra step and time
> > >
> > > >of
> > > > >scrolling). This doesn't make for a speedy review of a
> > > given System
> > > >across
> > > > >many charts. Of course, having to run the System test on
> > > each individual
> > > > >chart (rather than on a selection, as in an Exploration)
> > > is what really
> > > > >takes the time.
> > > > >
> > > > >If there's a faster way of doing this, please advise, and
> > > thanks again.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >Dave Nadeau
> > > >Fort Collins, CO
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >_________________________________________________________
> > > >Do You Yahoo!?
> > > >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
> > > >
> > >
> > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
> >
>
>
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