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> What is the ITM T of the € in MSK SW?
See old list mail below for the answer. {Note the
date!!!}
€URO has recently hitted the then expected Fractal Retracement
€ 0.84 level.
See next list mail for more details.
Regards,Ton Maas<A
href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxDismiss the
".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.Homepage <A
href="http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas";>http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
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----- Oorspronkelijk bericht -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">Van:
A.J. Maas
Aan: <A title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Metastock-List
Verzonden: zaterdag 29 april 2000
16:42
Onderwerp: Re: Corus hocus pocus
> 3) Then there is the euro currency. Since 1st Jan 1999
the Euro zone and its> member's currency has devalued by over 20 %
against not only the pound, but> the dollar, and has also devalued
against the Cuban peso, and the north> Korean won. In real terms your
savings are worth 20% less than before the> euro was brought in.
This currency effect has also distorted your chart,> which looks very
different when expressed in a stable currency.
Below is a mirrored representation of 2 historicaly
fluctuating but further stable currencies, the €uro and the
US$.
Pic1 shows the YOY LongTerm Downtrend of the
one(US$).
Pic2 shows the YOY rise and the current correction (turning
crash) of the other one(€uro), a currency that is still
technicaly in a LongTerm Uptrend.
Crashes have occured in (Large) 1929,1987,1998 and
(Smaller) in 1936-45(2nd WorldWar) and 1970ees(OIL+Houses)
and in 1990ees(GulfWar), and see where we are now.
Only the DowINDU alone was valued 2800 back in
1987,
compared to its current ATH 11.750. That's an increase of
8950 (+320%).
Currencies, being GOV owned <and important here: GOV
manipulated> will not let themselves compare to
stocks.
This is true, since that GOVs are not "publicly traded
<with profit rises for target> entities".
GOVs can introduce as many notes they wish(former the US),
eg live on CREDIT, and still not go bankrupt.
Unlike stocks, GOVs can too <FONT
size=2>introduce as many notes they like, and still not have to account a true
value for these notes,
eg GOVs are at free liberty to produce as many notes as that
they seem fit(Russia, YugoSlavia, LatinAm,Africa&Asia)
without publicy accounting for a single
note's true value.
This divergence between the two entities(stocks¬es)
thus makes comparissons unusefull, and for result from this
divergence, the currencies traded are in the hands of
speculators, eg and therefore traded on the futures markets(where
other regulations &accounting rules are enforced to
receive any listing licences).
After the above, and looking at the Charts, one can describe
these currency "futures" as Oscillators, eg indicators that
will float & drift around a centered value, 1:1 (one on
one, one for one).
Where the US$ made an historical Peak back in 1985, the €uro
made a Peak in 1995. Both have returned to the 1:1
(one for one) level back in 1989 and recently in
1999.
The €uro now is correcting its former 10year UpTrend
rise(1985-1995).
As mentioned in previous mail, the odds at the moment are
strongly against this €uro currency, since that this
currency
not only at the moment comprises the former
unstable-now-members currencies(Franc,Lire,Peseta,Peso) but are
soon(2002-2004)
joined with more unstable
currencies(BritPound,SweKrona,GreDrachme). The future thereafter(2005+) even
worsens, since
that some of the former Eastern European currencies, that
will have passed the human democracy + countries' liberations
qualifying tests, will be able to join
too. This all naturaly causes a large level of uncertainties, not risks for
the €uro, but
indeed the large amount of fundamental
doubts.
Around 1995, the US$ has bottomed out(Pic1).
Around 2005 the €-currency should then bottom
out(Pic2).
With for both a further continuaton of
their "oscillating around the 1:1 level" future ahead of them,
and done within these
oscillators' Trading Bands, as can be seen on both Pic1 and
Pic2.
Quantified, then the "1:1 ranges(the bands)"
are:
US$ vs
€uro
and
€uro vs US$
<FONT
size=2>------------------
------------------
€ 1.75 - €
0.70
U$ 1.45 -
0.55
The fact that the band for the €uro vs US$ is also the
smallest, shows directly for the €uro its internal stable strength,
eg
currency is much less
volatile.
This possitive divergence, no doubt, is due to the former
Bundesbank's very succesfull "Keep it a Hard Solid
currency"-policy,
a policy it has mastered and ruled succesfully for the
former DM, a converted hard currency that's now being
roughly
the 50% representation value in the
current €uro.
This succesfully maintained Stable Prices-policy
(Hard&Solid), is adopted by the ECC's Commision stated
and enforced
ankered in the ECC's foundation(statutes) and is
also stated and enforced ankered in EuroBank's <FONT
size=2>foundation(statutes).
Meaning that the Bundesbank lives on (= only renamed)
in(to) the European Bank.
Target for the moment are:
- the former breakouts € 1.132 (ST) and € 1.30
(IMT and stacking the lower TradingRange), and
<FONT
size=2>
for 2005(LT) a target € 1.45, stacking again and it being also slightly
past the outer falling
<FONT
size=2>
top Resitance line and also being that 3td BreakOut {€
1.45-but not labeled in the Chart} just
<FONT
size=2>
above that 2nd BreakOut @ € 1.30.
- the falling grey-Support line U$ 0.90(ST) and the 2/3tds
67%-retracement @ U$ 0.86 (IMT), and
<FONT
size=2>
for 2005(LT or even earlier) the Reversed Flag-patterns fallout Target
U$ 0.669.
Regards,Ton Maas<A
href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";><FONT
size=2>ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxDismiss the
".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.Homepage <A
href="http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas";><FONT
size=2>http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
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