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Sorry but I by this "every time you have a losing trade the odds of your
next
trade goes up" I meant the PROBABILITY of next trade goes up. You always
have 50% odds.
> If the success rate is 70%, it's true that there is about a
> 99% chance of
> having 4 losing trades in a row. However, once you've
> already had 3 losing
> trades, the chance of the next trade being a success is still
> only 70%.
No I don't agree, a system 70% prof. and having 3 consecutive losing
trades - the probability that the next trade will be a successful is 99%.
If you have a system that is 55% correct of the time. If you wait for 4
consecutive losers you have almost an 95% probability that the next trade
will be successful.
Same thing with roulette, they hate me in the casinos because if I play
roulette I play on red and black. I wait till red (black)past 3 or 4 times
in a row and then play on the other colour. And the longer you wait, like 5
or 6 times on red (black) the higher the probability the next will be the
other colour. Although 6 times the same colour is very rare. And this they
don't like in casinos.
Greetings
Mickey
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Randy Harmelink
> Sent: donderdag 13 april 2000 17:24
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Money Management Stops
>
>
> You can't use statistics that way. An increase in
> probability only occurs
> if the events are dependent.
>
> For example, suppose you are trying to draw an ace of spades
> from a deck of
> cards. If you continue to draw and discard cards that aren't
> the ace of
> spaces, your probability of drawing the ace of spades
> increases on each
> draw. But if you put each drawn card back into the deck and
> reshuffle, your
> probability of drawing the ace of spades on a given draw will
> never change,
> no matter how many times you fail to draw it.
>
> If the success rate is 70%, it's true that there is about a
> 99% chance of
> having 4 losing trades in a row. However, once you've
> already had 3 losing
> trades, the chance of the next trade being a success is still
> only 70%.
>
> Otherwise, it would be easy to develop a system to beat a
> roulette wheel.
> <G>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michel Amelinckx <Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 7:58 AM
> Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
>
>
> > And because you have such a great number of profitability,
> did you know
> that
> > every time you have a losing trade the odds of your next
> trade goes up.
> > 70% prof - after 2 consec losing trades - probability next
> trade will be a
> > winner is 91%
> > 70% prof - after 3 consec losing trades - probability next
> trade will be a
> > winner is 97%
> > 70% prof - after 4 consec losing trades - probability next
> trade will be a
> > winner is 99%
>
>
>
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