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How can you show a profit betting on black/red when the odds are even
money? There is still the color green that tilts the odds to the house. I
cannot see where there is a mathematical probability of showing a profit.
Rather, I wish there was some way in which I could fade those type of bets.
Now before the "hate" mail starts about off topic, let's consider how
closely the probability factor is applicable in all facets of
life/work/trading.
Al Taglavore
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> From: Michel Amelinckx <Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
> Date: Thursday, April 13, 2000 1:10 PM
>
> Sorry but I by this "every time you have a losing trade the odds of your
> next
> trade goes up" I meant the PROBABILITY of next trade goes up. You always
> have 50% odds.
>
> > If the success rate is 70%, it's true that there is about a
> > 99% chance of
> > having 4 losing trades in a row. However, once you've
> > already had 3 losing
> > trades, the chance of the next trade being a success is still
> > only 70%.
>
> No I don't agree, a system 70% prof. and having 3 consecutive losing
> trades - the probability that the next trade will be a successful is 99%.
> If you have a system that is 55% correct of the time. If you wait for 4
> consecutive losers you have almost an 95% probability that the next trade
> will be successful.
>
> Same thing with roulette, they hate me in the casinos because if I play
> roulette I play on red and black. I wait till red (black)past 3 or 4
times
> in a row and then play on the other colour. And the longer you wait, like
5
> or 6 times on red (black) the higher the probability the next will be the
> other colour. Although 6 times the same colour is very rare. And this
they
> don't like in casinos.
>
> Greetings
>
> Mickey
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Randy Harmelink
> > Sent: donderdag 13 april 2000 17:24
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: Money Management Stops
> >
> >
> > You can't use statistics that way. An increase in
> > probability only occurs
> > if the events are dependent.
> >
> > For example, suppose you are trying to draw an ace of spades
> > from a deck of
> > cards. If you continue to draw and discard cards that aren't
> > the ace of
> > spaces, your probability of drawing the ace of spades
> > increases on each
> > draw. But if you put each drawn card back into the deck and
> > reshuffle, your
> > probability of drawing the ace of spades on a given draw will
> > never change,
> > no matter how many times you fail to draw it.
> >
> > If the success rate is 70%, it's true that there is about a
> > 99% chance of
> > having 4 losing trades in a row. However, once you've
> > already had 3 losing
> > trades, the chance of the next trade being a success is still
> > only 70%.
> >
> > Otherwise, it would be easy to develop a system to beat a
> > roulette wheel.
> > <G>
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Michel Amelinckx <Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 7:58 AM
> > Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
> >
> >
> > > And because you have such a great number of profitability,
> > did you know
> > that
> > > every time you have a losing trade the odds of your next
> > trade goes up.
> > > 70% prof - after 2 consec losing trades - probability next
> > trade will be a
> > > winner is 91%
> > > 70% prof - after 3 consec losing trades - probability next
> > trade will be a
> > > winner is 97%
> > > 70% prof - after 4 consec losing trades - probability next
> > trade will be a
> > > winner is 99%
> >
> >
> >
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