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<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Steve<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>We
chickened out and closed our 9 S&P this morning to lock in about 50+ points
each.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Should have stayed through
the day, but with this market, we figured we couldn’t go broke taking a profit.<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Also closed out our DIA and SPY for a
profit and my brother took out a bundle on his 1,000 QQQ.<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Me, OTOH didn’t short those QQQ.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
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<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>We are
also buying S&Ps in the morning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Let’s hope it’s a big move up. </span></font></span><span
class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Wingdings><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;
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mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings'><span style='mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:
Wingdings'>J</span></span></font></span><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>I’ll post
our positions tonight after I place the orders.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
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12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>AUTOTEXTLIST \s "E-mail
Signature" <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'>Guy</span></font><font color=navy><span
style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Steve Karnish<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, April 13, 2000
8:34 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> RealTraders Discussion Group;
metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Flip it good.</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>List,</span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>I've
been having so much fun trading the "softs" that I almost forgot
about those dumb old short positions in the S&P. For the first time
since 2/22/00, I am buying the S&P. I'm closing 3 short positions
from 3/6, 3/20, & 3/22. It's been a struggle, but we should close one
with a 40 point loss and the other two positions will combine for about 85
postive points. Not the greatest return for the five week investment in
time, but considering the territory that was traveled, I'm happy to pick up the
marbles and move on. </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>The
attached chart shows the how well the BB Histogram can time you into a
position. When prices move outside two standard deviations I pay a lot of
attention to what is going on. As alway, I use a number of momentum
oscilltors for specific timing, I'm always in the market, and I use no stops.
So, tomorrow morning, instead of flipping coins, I'm flipping my
positions. Guy, please tell me you're joining me soon.</span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>Steve
Karnish<br>
Cedar Creek Trading<br>
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com</span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Apr 14 00:07:18 2000
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From: "Guy Tann" <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2000 23:18:56 -0700
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Status:
Lionel
I really don't agree with all of the analogies here. I'll refer you to my
other post.
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Lionel Issen
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 8:05 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Money Management Stops
Ug:
You are correct. Feller showed in his statistics books that, while it is
rare, you can have a long string of heads (or tails). Each toss is
independent of the other. Even if a system is 75% correct, you can have a
long string of losing trades. There are times when nothing seems to work and
other times when anything seems to work.
Lionel Issen
lissen@xxxxxxxxx
----- Original Message -----
From: <ug@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2000 4:21 PM
Subject: RE: Money Management Stops
> Michel Amelinckx writes:
>
> > Same thing with roulette, they hate me in the casinos because if I
> > play roulette I play on red and black. I wait till red (black)past 3
> > or 4 times in a row and then play on the other colour. And the
> > longer you wait, like 5 or 6 times on red (black) the higher the
> > probability the next will be the other colour. Although 6 times the
> > same colour is very rare. And this they don't like in casinos.
>
>
>
> If a coin tossed comes up heads 4 times in a row, what's the chance it
> will be tails next time?
>
>
>
> If a system is 50% wins, and you lose 4 in a row, what't the chance of
> a winning trade next time?
>
>
> Given that each trade is independent of the others, which I THINK you
> are in agreement with, the above 2 are the same situation, so why
> would you say one is 50% and one is 99?
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