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The answer is no.
It is completely possible to have a 1000 events go against you in a row and
then have another 1000 go for you in a row.
The point is that you could be wiped out before the reversion back to the
mean.
What you are describing is like doubling your bet each time you lose figuring
eventually, you will win. Not true. You will eventually find a streak that
breaks your bank first. Play long enough, and you will eventually lose
everything. The house is counting out that. The house has a positive
expectancy, you the gambler does not.
Kevin Campbell
In a message dated 4/17/00 7:43:39 AM Central Daylight Time,
Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
> Thanks for helping me out here. I guess my explanation was not very
> understandable. And the example of the roulette table was even worse
> actually it was WRONG because of course you still have the 0, so this was
> WRONG.
> What I just tried to say, like described here below is if you have a system
> with 70% prob. (of course these statistics are as good as you test them)
and
> your system shows 4 or more LOSES IN A ROW. And because of this it is
> deviating from your mean and thus the prob. of the next trade being correct
> is higher. (There is of course a change that your system stops working at
> that point)
> Is this incorrect ?
>
> Greetings
>
> Mickey
> B
>
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