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Ton,
I am not sure if you were directing this message to me or J (since you
replied to his reply) But I think you will find my message to him a little
more clear on my strategy than the first post I gave. You could be
exactly correct on your timing, In fact I believe that Wednesdays
low is the low for this week, and we should have already hit
the low for this quarter (April-June), If the price seems to reverse
before the Monthly lower congestion level (around 1330) then my
rules would be too reverse with it and ride the market up (and possibly
make the month high). It is very likely that that this May bar could
exit congestion to the up side....but I don't care. I want to go in what
ever direction it moves. Some of the folks that use this method
capture an average 40% of the move that each bar (in the focus
time period) that they trade. My focus period is monthly bars.
The SO&UP bar for April had a 195 point range from high to low,
195 ax 40% = 78 points. Can I do this....don't know, but I aim
find out. You have a good record and as always I enjoy your analysis.
Adam
----- Original Message -----
From: "A.J. Maas" <anthmaas@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock-List" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 03, 2000 6:35 PM
Subject: Re: (Market) S&P analysis critique
> To give you a hard landing "back to earth" with the so called "expert",
> compare the Periodic results of the so called "expert"
>
> Basic Momentum Coppock RSIderivative "Mr.expert"
> ------------------------ ------------- ------------------
- ----------------
> Date: Signal Date: Signal Date: Signal Date:
Signal
> 0126 - Negative 1229 - Sell 0204 - Buy 0200 -
Bullish
> 0215 - Positive cont. 0214 - Sell
cont.
> 0217 - Negative cont. cont.
cont.
> 0309 - Positive 0320 - Buy 0301 - Buy cont.
> cont. cont. 0330 - Sell
0329 - Bearish
> 0413 - Negative 0412 - Sell cont.
0419 - Bullish
> cont. cont. 0425 - Buy
0502 - Bearish
>
> If the S&P keeps up its very recent developped Up momentum, than within a
few
> days from now a Postive/Buy will be signaled by both the BM and the
Coppock, where
> the BM signal can be expected within the coming 2-3 days and the Coppock
> within 5-10 days from now.
>
> 1408 should now hold, which is then a 2nd higher Low in both the Price and
> in the confirming RSI, eg an UpTrend.
> Else, a descending Triangle(1552-1339) will be formed and should
(Trendwise)
> not be traded for the moment, until a clear break (either way) is made.
>
> Regards,
> Ton Maas
> ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
> Homepage http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "j seed" <jseed_10@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: woensdag 3 mei 2000 15:59
> Subject: Re: (Market) S&P analysis critique
>
>
> > Adam,
> > In theory I agree with your accessment of the market. In principle I'd
have
> > to wave a big flag. Here's why; I took a look at the monthly, weekly,
and
> > daily bars of the S&P. When I looked at the monthly and zoomed out to
> > capture all the way back to 1996, I saw a bullish trend. This is also
> > confirmed by applying the trend expert you sent. This then is where I
would
> > disagree. Aug., Sep., and Oct. of '98 were bearish with a drop below the
> > Gann HiLo. Now if my memory serves me correctly I can remember a whole
lot
> > of people crying about that time. Came close again in Jul., Aug., and
Sep.
> > of '99 but never went below the Gann HiLo...just some congestion. As for
May
> > of this year, I'm getting one of those bright green bars that denotes a
bull
> > trend.
> >
> > Now when I switch to weekly bars and zoom in to capture all the way back
to
> > Jul. of '98, the picture changes dramatically. Jul.'98 ushered in a
bearish
> > trend which consolidated and corrected to bullish in Sep. and Oct. of
'98.
> > Moving forward to '00, I see another bear trend that began in the last
week
> > of Jan. and ended in the last week of Feb. We then had some
consolidation
> > and finally broke out in the second week of March. Next, we had 4 nice
> > bullish weeks and have finally entered into another period of bearish
> > consolidation. Okay, I'm just about ready for CNBC!
> >
> > Finally, lets switch to the daily chart still using your expert. I'm
> > displaying all the way back to Feb.,'00 and see that on Mar. 29th we
entered
> > into a bearish trend with some consolidation until April 19th when the
> > market broke above the Gann HiLo and went bullish until yesterday, 5-29.
We
> > have now dropped below our Gann HiLo and are again in bearish territory.
> > This is a consolidation bar and not a trend which could mean that we may
> > again turn bullish (sounds like Bill Williams huh). If I were going to
play
> > this market bearish I'd probably wait for a confirming bear trend bar
which
> > should occur at the 1415 mark.
> >
> > One final point that I would make and that is that none of this would
have
> > been possible without the expert or the Gann HiLo that you so graciously
> > offered. I can only say, THANKS. It's one helluva system for analysis!
> >
> > J.
> >
> > >From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Subject: (Market) S&P analysis part2
> > >Date: Tue, 2 May 2000 22:52:18 -0500
> > >
> > >Now that I have my basic direction determined from the monthly,
> > >lets analyze the daily bars: I was noticing over the week-end that
> > >the daily bars had retrace to the 61.8% line and entered into
congestion.
> > >This congestion suggest a possible reverse from the up move since mid
> > >April. Monday's close below the lower confines of congestion (around
1458)
> > >further strengthens my monthly analysis of downward movement.
> > > Well..now that I have an analysis...how to trade? Well It looks like
a
> > >good
> > >sell level would be at 1464. with the protection stop around 1495. The
> > >calculated risk on the protection is 31 points and the calculated
projected
> > >low is around 1350 (100 points). Of course analysis can be wrong, in
> > >several
> > >ways. My entry point could be missed and I may not get into the market,
or
> > >the market may reverse tomorrow and blow-up my sell.
> > >Regardless..this is NOT a recommendation, only an exercise for you to
> > >critique.
> > >
> >
> > ________________________________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
> >
>
>
>
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