|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Correction: the monthly congestion low is actually around 1348,
and there is no SO&UP April (should have been S&P April).
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 03, 2000 8:16 PM
Subject: Re: (Market) S&P analysis critique
> Ton,
> I am not sure if you were directing this message to me or J (since you
> replied to his reply) But I think you will find my message to him a little
> more clear on my strategy than the first post I gave. You could be
> exactly correct on your timing, In fact I believe that Wednesdays
> low is the low for this week, and we should have already hit
> the low for this quarter (April-June), If the price seems to reverse
> before the Monthly lower congestion level (around 1330) then my
> rules would be too reverse with it and ride the market up (and possibly
> make the month high). It is very likely that that this May bar could
> exit congestion to the up side....but I don't care. I want to go in what
> ever direction it moves. Some of the folks that use this method
> capture an average 40% of the move that each bar (in the focus
> time period) that they trade. My focus period is monthly bars.
> The SO&UP bar for April had a 195 point range from high to low,
> 195 ax 40% = 78 points. Can I do this....don't know, but I aim
> find out. You have a good record and as always I enjoy your analysis.
>
> Adam
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "A.J. Maas" <anthmaas@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Metastock-List" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 03, 2000 6:35 PM
> Subject: Re: (Market) S&P analysis critique
>
>
> > To give you a hard landing "back to earth" with the so called "expert",
> > compare the Periodic results of the so called "expert"
> >
> > Basic Momentum Coppock RSIderivative "Mr.expert"
>
--------------- ------------- ------------------
> - ----------------
> > Date: Signal Date: Signal Date: Signal Date:
> Signal
> > 0126 - Negative 1229 - Sell 0204 - Buy 0200 -
> Bullish
> > 0215 - Positive cont. 0214 - Sell
> cont.
> > 0217 - Negative cont. cont.
> cont.
> > 0309 - Positive 0320 - Buy 0301 - Buy cont.
> > cont. cont. 0330 - Sell
> 0329 - Bearish
> > 0413 - Negative 0412 - Sell cont.
> 0419 - Bullish
> > cont. cont. 0425 - Buy
> 0502 - Bearish
> >
> > If the S&P keeps up its very recent developped Up momentum, than within
a
> few
> > days from now a Postive/Buy will be signaled by both the BM and the
> Coppock, where
> > the BM signal can be expected within the coming 2-3 days and the Coppock
> > within 5-10 days from now.
> >
> > 1408 should now hold, which is then a 2nd higher Low in both the Price
and
> > in the confirming RSI, eg an UpTrend.
> > Else, a descending Triangle(1552-1339) will be formed and should
> (Trendwise)
> > not be traded for the moment, until a clear break (either way) is made.
> >
> > Regards,
> > Ton Maas
> > ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
> > Homepage http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "j seed" <jseed_10@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: woensdag 3 mei 2000 15:59
> > Subject: Re: (Market) S&P analysis critique
> >
> >
> > > Adam,
> > > In theory I agree with your accessment of the market. In principle I'd
> have
> > > to wave a big flag. Here's why; I took a look at the monthly, weekly,
> and
> > > daily bars of the S&P. When I looked at the monthly and zoomed out to
> > > capture all the way back to 1996, I saw a bullish trend. This is also
> > > confirmed by applying the trend expert you sent. This then is where I
> would
> > > disagree. Aug., Sep., and Oct. of '98 were bearish with a drop below
the
> > > Gann HiLo. Now if my memory serves me correctly I can remember a whole
> lot
> > > of people crying about that time. Came close again in Jul., Aug., and
> Sep.
> > > of '99 but never went below the Gann HiLo...just some congestion. As
for
> May
> > > of this year, I'm getting one of those bright green bars that denotes
a
> bull
> > > trend.
> > >
> > > Now when I switch to weekly bars and zoom in to capture all the way
back
> to
> > > Jul. of '98, the picture changes dramatically. Jul.'98 ushered in a
> bearish
> > > trend which consolidated and corrected to bullish in Sep. and Oct. of
> '98.
> > > Moving forward to '00, I see another bear trend that began in the last
> week
> > > of Jan. and ended in the last week of Feb. We then had some
> consolidation
> > > and finally broke out in the second week of March. Next, we had 4 nice
> > > bullish weeks and have finally entered into another period of bearish
> > > consolidation. Okay, I'm just about ready for CNBC!
> > >
> > > Finally, lets switch to the daily chart still using your expert. I'm
> > > displaying all the way back to Feb.,'00 and see that on Mar. 29th we
> entered
> > > into a bearish trend with some consolidation until April 19th when the
> > > market broke above the Gann HiLo and went bullish until yesterday,
5-29.
> We
> > > have now dropped below our Gann HiLo and are again in bearish
territory.
> > > This is a consolidation bar and not a trend which could mean that we
may
> > > again turn bullish (sounds like Bill Williams huh). If I were going to
> play
> > > this market bearish I'd probably wait for a confirming bear trend bar
> which
> > > should occur at the 1415 mark.
> > >
> > > One final point that I would make and that is that none of this would
> have
> > > been possible without the expert or the Gann HiLo that you so
graciously
> > > offered. I can only say, THANKS. It's one helluva system for analysis!
> > >
> > > J.
> > >
> > > >From: "Adam Hefner" <vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Subject: (Market) S&P analysis part2
> > > >Date: Tue, 2 May 2000 22:52:18 -0500
> > > >
> > > >Now that I have my basic direction determined from the monthly,
> > > >lets analyze the daily bars: I was noticing over the week-end that
> > > >the daily bars had retrace to the 61.8% line and entered into
> congestion.
> > > >This congestion suggest a possible reverse from the up move since mid
> > > >April. Monday's close below the lower confines of congestion (around
> 1458)
> > > >further strengthens my monthly analysis of downward movement.
> > > > Well..now that I have an analysis...how to trade? Well It looks
like
> a
> > > >good
> > > >sell level would be at 1464. with the protection stop around 1495.
The
> > > >calculated risk on the protection is 31 points and the calculated
> projected
> > > >low is around 1350 (100 points). Of course analysis can be wrong, in
> > > >several
> > > >ways. My entry point could be missed and I may not get into the
market,
> or
> > > >the market may reverse tomorrow and blow-up my sell.
> > > >Regardless..this is NOT a recommendation, only an exercise for you to
> > > >critique.
> > > >
> > >
> > >
________________________________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at
http://www.hotmail.com
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
|