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Mark,
Very well said indeed! In fact this is the adjustment (from analysis to
trading) that I have been learning for the last 6 to 8 months. The method I
am learning now, still lets me analyze....but even the best of analysis can
be (WILL BE) wrong from time to time. So how can one trade? When you decide
to take a position in the market.....there MUST be a criteria or level of
expectation to PROVE your position correct. If the market doesn't act as
expected...then I MUST be wrong in my position and will get out as
previously planned (we all plan for a way to exit, don't we?). Lately my
analysis have done pretty well, but I sure seem to miss my entry
levels....still I would rather miss a trade with conservative entry point
than expose myself to higher risk....just for the sake of getting filled
(does that make sense?).
Later,
Adam
----- Original Message -----
From: "scheier" <scheier@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 5:38 PM
Subject: Re: Going Long
> I had to laugh at your sarcasm and your point is well made. But I think
Jean
> Jacques' original question is actually a fair one, just poorly worded.
If he
> had said, "Why are you buying in a downtrend" instead of using that
debatable
> term `Bear Market', his point would have perhaps been better made.
>
> And I think the question is a good one, and fair game for any of us who
stick
> our necks out with possible trades. For with the series of trend
continuation
> patterns we have had in the Nasdaq off the recent high--first, the 3 day
Gann
> Pullback, and then the A-B-C correction--the opportunities for selling
short and
> going with the trend have far outweighed the chances of picking the right
stock
> to buck this--yes, let's call a spade a spade--Bear Market.
>
> As for absolutely positively knowing ANYTHING before taking a trade, that
is, of
> course, absurdly impossible and would prevent us from ever being able to
even
> pick up the phone to place a trade. But I'll go farther, you don't have
to
> assume you know which way the market is going before you position yourself
with
> an order. In fact, most of the mistakes traders make come from the
assumption
> that, in fact, they know which way the market is going when they take a
> position.
>
> Then how does one trade without such a trend opinion? You simply
identify
> behavior patterns, and position yourself around them with stops. If they
> trigger, go with the movement. If they do not, shrug your shoulders and
look for
> the next set up. The best traders I have ever met in the market place
always
> have this attitude: I don't care which way it goes, and I don't need to
know
> ahead of time.
>
> When I finally arrived at a trading method that could incorporate this
attitude,
> a HUGE weight was taken from my shoulders. Stress disappeared. And now
I
> often come back to the office in the morning not even remembering whether
I had
> taken a short position or a long one in a particular market from the
previous
> day--that's how little I now think about my positions at night. If
you're
> having trouble putting the markets away at night and forgetting about your
> trading; if you find yourself fantasizing at night about how your trades
are
> going to come out and where your profits will be should your daydreams
come
> true; or if you find yourself worrying at night about your positions and
find
> you don't sleep well because of them, then you probably took the trades
based on
> the assumption that you knew which way the market was going to go, instead
of
> letting the market take you with it at key points around a behavior
pattern.
>
> Just some food for thought....
>
> Scheier
>
>
> Kent Rollins wrote:
>
> > Since you're new to the list, maybe you'd like to tell us how you know
> > absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of a doubt that we're in a
bear
> > market. While you're at it, how long will it last? Also, will the
small
> > caps, banks, foods, and drugs that have been in a bear market for the
last
> > year or so (2 years in the case of small caps) participate in this bear
> > market? If oil prices stay high, will the oil stocks turn down also or
will
> > they remain bullish? Where will the market be when the bear market
ends?
> > What about wheat and sugar?
> >
> > Kent
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Macromnt@xxxxxxx <Macromnt@xxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 1:02 PM
> > Subject: Re: Going Long
> >
> > I am new to this list but I wander what makes someone go long in a bear
> > market. Is it an attempt to catch the bottom (it's always a risky
attempt) ?
> >
> > Jean Jacques Chenier
> > Global Management
> > www.trendoscil.com
>
>
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