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Adam Hefner wrote:
> So how can one trade? When you decide
> to take a position in the market.....there MUST be a criteria or level of
> expectation to PROVE your position correct.
Exactomundo. In the case of the Drummond P&L you're using, you demand the
market comes to you--MIT. And if it doesn't, so what? Who cares. This still
puts you out of the "I must be right to make money" continuum and puts you into
the "if the market first does this...I will then risk just this much on it doing
that" continuum. And if the trade first triggers and then does confirm, you can
target the objective based on the behavior pattern that your trading method is
based on--and give it a chance to get there with a nice comfortable trailing
stop.
This is a trading method. But if you find yourself tempted into using your
trading method as an analytical forum, then you're right back in the "I must be
right to remain credible" conundrum. Opinions about the market really don't
have anything to do with trading at all. Opinions, as they say, are just like
you-know-what. And it really doesn't serve anyone else to hear about them.
Scheier
> If the market doesn't act as
> expected...then I MUST be wrong in my position and will get out as
> previously planned (we all plan for a way to exit, don't we?). Lately my
> analysis have done pretty well, but I sure seem to miss my entry
> levels....still I would rather miss a trade with conservative entry point
> than expose myself to higher risk....just for the sake of getting filled
> (does that make sense?).
>
> Later,
> Adam
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "scheier" <scheier@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 5:38 PM
> Subject: Re: Going Long
>
> > I had to laugh at your sarcasm and your point is well made. But I think
> Jean
> > Jacques' original question is actually a fair one, just poorly worded.
> If he
> > had said, "Why are you buying in a downtrend" instead of using that
> debatable
> > term `Bear Market', his point would have perhaps been better made.
> >
> > And I think the question is a good one, and fair game for any of us who
> stick
> > our necks out with possible trades. For with the series of trend
> continuation
> > patterns we have had in the Nasdaq off the recent high--first, the 3 day
> Gann
> > Pullback, and then the A-B-C correction--the opportunities for selling
> short and
> > going with the trend have far outweighed the chances of picking the right
> stock
> > to buck this--yes, let's call a spade a spade--Bear Market.
> >
> > As for absolutely positively knowing ANYTHING before taking a trade, that
> is, of
> > course, absurdly impossible and would prevent us from ever being able to
> even
> > pick up the phone to place a trade. But I'll go farther, you don't have
> to
> > assume you know which way the market is going before you position yourself
> with
> > an order. In fact, most of the mistakes traders make come from the
> assumption
> > that, in fact, they know which way the market is going when they take a
> > position.
> >
> > Then how does one trade without such a trend opinion? You simply
> identify
> > behavior patterns, and position yourself around them with stops. If they
> > trigger, go with the movement. If they do not, shrug your shoulders and
> look for
> > the next set up. The best traders I have ever met in the market place
> always
> > have this attitude: I don't care which way it goes, and I don't need to
> know
> > ahead of time.
> >
> > When I finally arrived at a trading method that could incorporate this
> attitude,
> > a HUGE weight was taken from my shoulders. Stress disappeared. And now
> I
> > often come back to the office in the morning not even remembering whether
> I had
> > taken a short position or a long one in a particular market from the
> previous
> > day--that's how little I now think about my positions at night. If
> you're
> > having trouble putting the markets away at night and forgetting about your
> > trading; if you find yourself fantasizing at night about how your trades
> are
> > going to come out and where your profits will be should your daydreams
> come
> > true; or if you find yourself worrying at night about your positions and
> find
> > you don't sleep well because of them, then you probably took the trades
> based on
> > the assumption that you knew which way the market was going to go, instead
> of
> > letting the market take you with it at key points around a behavior
> pattern.
> >
> > Just some food for thought....
> >
> > Scheier
> >
> >
> > Kent Rollins wrote:
> >
> > > Since you're new to the list, maybe you'd like to tell us how you know
> > > absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of a doubt that we're in a
> bear
> > > market. While you're at it, how long will it last? Also, will the
> small
> > > caps, banks, foods, and drugs that have been in a bear market for the
> last
> > > year or so (2 years in the case of small caps) participate in this bear
> > > market? If oil prices stay high, will the oil stocks turn down also or
> will
> > > they remain bullish? Where will the market be when the bear market
> ends?
> > > What about wheat and sugar?
> > >
> > > Kent
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Macromnt@xxxxxxx <Macromnt@xxxxxxx>
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 1:02 PM
> > > Subject: Re: Going Long
> > >
> > > I am new to this list but I wander what makes someone go long in a bear
> > > market. Is it an attempt to catch the bottom (it's always a risky
> attempt) ?
> > >
> > > Jean Jacques Chenier
> > > Global Management
> > > www.trendoscil.com
> >
> >
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