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RE: Going Long



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<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Robert<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The first point
is I&#8217;m still a nervous stocks trader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;
</span>Second, one of our indicators (a new one from our resident guru [my dad </span></font></span><span
class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Wingdings><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;
mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-char-type:symbol;
mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings'><span style='mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:
Wingdings'>J</span></span></font></span><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2
color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>] but we haven&#8217;t completed testing) was still bearish.<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>This is a refined overbought/oversold
indicator that he thinks might replace one of our other OB/OS indicators.<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>In the last year or two, it is 95%
accurate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>On the negative side, it
has experienced substantial drawdowns that might necessitate a different
trading technique.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>We&#8217;re looking
at it in terms of trading options, but again we&#8217;re in a preliminary stage and
are not sure how this will contribute to our trading system.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>And yes, I
committed heavier than usual on this trade, which I regret now.<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Only from the standpoint that I would
have preferred adding my second half position tomorrow on the open.<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </span>Again, we&#8217;re still figuring out how to
trade equities and probably shouldn&#8217;t be trading these volumes. <o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Regards,<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoAutoSig><!--[if supportFields]><span class=EmailStyle18><font 
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span><span 
style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span>AUTOTEXTLIST \s &quot;E-mail 
Signature&quot; <span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'>Guy</span></font><font color=navy><span
style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]></span></font><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoAutoSig><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>Paranoia...you only have to be right once
to make it all worthwhile!</span></font><font color=navy><span
style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><!--[if supportFields]><span class=EmailStyle18><font 
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></font></span><![endif]--><span
class=EmailStyle18><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Robert C Richmond<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, May 10, 2000 6:47
AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: Going Long</span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]>&nbsp;<![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Now Guy, your
expression of&nbsp; <i><span style='font-style:italic'>We're really, really
long.</span></i> <br>
<i><span style='font-style:italic'>You don't want to know how long -</span></i>
begs the question: <br>
Have you committed heavier on this trade because your indicators are more
pronounced than usual, or&nbsp; why? </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Always interesting to read your takes on
the market. </span></font><font color=black><span style='color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Thanks </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Guy Tann wrote: </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-right:.5in;mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
auto;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>JimG </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>I'm sorry.
:)&nbsp; But since everybody was bugging me about going long and even <br>
Kent (I think) told me I'd be long by Wednesday, I sort of felt obligated. <br>
Unfortunately, I didn't wait to pull the trigger at the close, so it cost me <br>
again.&nbsp; Hard to break old habits. </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>I hope
everybody who has been pushing for this buy signal is happy and I <br>
would like to think that they're right as well.&nbsp; We're really, really
long. <br>
You don't want to know how long.&nbsp; :) </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>All I can do
now is hang on for the ride. </span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Have a good
vacation. </span></font><font color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Guy </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Paranoia...you
only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile! </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>-----Original
Message----- <br>
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [<a
href="mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</a>]On
<br>
Behalf Of Jim Greening <br>
Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 5:49 PM <br>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <br>
Subject: Re: Going Long </span></font><font color=black><span style='color:
black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Guy, <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Just when I was going to go to cash and enjoy
my&nbsp; vacation.&nbsp; Now I <br>
have to jump back in and spend vacation time watching the market.&nbsp; Thanks <br>
anyway &lt;G&gt;! </span></font><font color=black><span style='color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>JimG </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>-----
Original Message ----- <br>
From: &quot;Guy Tann&quot; &lt;grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx&gt; <br>
To: &quot;Metastock User Group&quot; &lt;metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx&gt; <br>
Sent: Tuesday, May 09, 2000 6:51 AM <br>
Subject: Going Long </span></font><font color=black><span style='color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p style='margin-right:.5in;margin-left:1.0in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>&gt; List <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; Well, I hope I haven't kept you waiting for this buy signal, but we're <br>
going <br>
&gt; long this morning. <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; We took out a profit on our short S&amp;P futures, but not as much as we
would <br>
&gt; have at yesterday's close.&nbsp; We averaged around $500 a contract.&nbsp;
We closed <br>
&gt; out our short QQQ, DIA and SPY at a profit as well.&nbsp; We made money on
the <br>
&gt; DIA and the SPY, and had to cheat a little on the QQQ.&nbsp; We shorted
more of <br>
&gt; those when the market was up, thereby raising our average cost. <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; Guy <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt; Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile! <br>
&gt; <br>
&gt;</span></font><font color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

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From: "Guy Tann" <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: Going Long
Date: Wed, 10 May 2000 22:05:39 -0700
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Status:   

Hi Steve

We got another confirmation tonight for the long side.  As you know, we have
absolutely no idea how long we'll be long, but hopefully it'll be long
enough to make a buck or two.

Met with our web site producer (read that nephew, so not much has been done)
tonight and my brother.  I'm going to put some stuff together for him.  I'll
e-mail you later for some thoughts.  We're going to do a newsletter type
free site showing our system and results and compare it to the NASDAQ, S&P
500 and the DOW.  We haven't figured out how we're going to make a buck with
it since we're not brokers, fund or pool operators, etc.  One thought is to
offer a fee based service letting people subscribe to an e-mail service
where we'll provide them with out trades either as we make them or even
before we make them.

With the new CFTC regulations, we qualify as non-registered CTA.  Makes it
easy for people like ourselves and software developers.  Free at last, free
at last.  The court held that the CFTC's regulation in these instances were
unconstitutional.

"Sec. 4.14  Exemption from registration as a commodity trading advisor.

    (a) * * *
    (9) It does not engage in any of the following activities:
    (i) Directing client accounts; or
    (ii) Providing commodity trading advice based on, or tailored to,
the commodity interest or cash market positions or other circumstances
or characteristics of particular clients."

Based on these
Guy

Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Steve Karnish
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 7:49 PM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Going Long

Guy,

This is sure getting spooky.  Seems like a lot folks are "liking" the long
side.  This scares me, always has.  With that said:  My conservative and eye
poppin' accurate, mechanical system triggered long positions in both the
Emini and Enasty.  I hate to join large clubs, but since you are already a
member....   I just hope that the "initiation fees" are too hefty up front.

Back in the saddle again,

Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 6:19 PM
Subject: RE: Going Long


> Scheier
>
> Good points.  With the market collapsing today and my brother in a plane
> flying down for a meeting regarding our web site, I turned off the TV,
never
> even fired up the computer and went to the mall and bought myself that new
> KitchenAid Mixer.
>
> We never know which direction the market is going to take.  Like you said,
> we don't care.  We're traders, period.  Up, down, sideways, upside down,
> doesn't matter.  As long as we have movement we're happy.  We strictly
trade
> probabilities.  We know, based upon the last fifteen years or so, that our
> system is right at least 70% of the time, and for the last few years at
> least 80% of the time.  Our trading is built around those probabilities.
> When we make a trade, we never know whether we'll be in that trade one day
> or a month.  We really don't care.  As long as we maintain that 70-80%
> probability of success, we'll make money.
>
> Now, when we're early or wrong, it does get painful, but since we don't
draw
> any money out for expenses, it doesn't hurt as much.  We did make an error
> entering our equity positions for this trade.  We should have been going
> long the other half of our equities tomorrow morning.  We still feel
pretty
> good about the trade.  I think the market has factored in the Fed's
interest
> rate increase already and we're do for a bounce.
>
> Now our system is comprised of two major components.  One is a home grown
> momentum signal which we couple with an overbought/oversold indicator.  It
> appears to work quite well.  Let's see what happens with this trade.  It's
> possible that this is the one that brings our average down to 75%. :)
>
> Guy
>
> Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of scheier
> Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 3:39 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Going Long
>
> I had to laugh at your sarcasm and your point is well made.  But I think
> Jean
> Jacques' original question is actually a fair one, just poorly worded.
If
> he
> had said, "Why are you buying in a downtrend" instead of using that
> debatable
> term `Bear Market', his point would have perhaps been better made.
>
> And I think the question is a good one, and fair game for any of us who
> stick
> our necks out with possible trades.   For with the series of trend
> continuation
> patterns we have had in the Nasdaq off the recent high--first, the 3 day
> Gann
> Pullback, and then the A-B-C correction--the opportunities for selling
short
> and
> going with the trend have far outweighed the chances of picking the right
> stock
> to buck this--yes, let's call a spade a spade--Bear Market.
>
> As for absolutely positively knowing ANYTHING before taking a trade, that
> is, of
> course, absurdly impossible and would prevent us from ever being able to
> even
> pick up the phone to place a trade.   But I'll go farther, you don't have
to
> assume you know which way the market is going before you position yourself
> with
> an order.   In fact, most of the mistakes traders make come from the
> assumption
> that, in fact, they know which way the market is going when they take a
> position.
>
> Then how does one trade without such a trend opinion?   You simply
identify
> behavior patterns, and position yourself around them with stops.   If they
> trigger, go with the movement. If they do not, shrug your shoulders and
look
> for
> the next set up.   The best traders I have ever met in the market place
> always
> have this attitude: I don't care which way it goes, and I don't need to
know
> ahead of time.
>
> When I finally arrived at a trading method that could incorporate this
> attitude,
> a HUGE weight was taken from my shoulders.   Stress disappeared.   And now
I
> often come back to the office in the morning not even remembering whether
I
> had
> taken a short position or a long one in a particular market from the
> previous
> day--that's how little I now think about my positions at night.   If
you're
> having trouble putting the markets away at night and forgetting about your
> trading; if you find yourself fantasizing at night about how your trades
are
> going to come out and where your profits will be should your daydreams
come
> true; or if you find yourself worrying at night about your positions and
> find
> you don't sleep well because of them, then you probably took the trades
> based on
> the assumption that you knew which way the market was going to go, instead
> of
> letting the market take you with it at key points around a behavior
pattern.
>
> Just some food for thought....
>
> Scheier
>
>
> Kent Rollins wrote:
>
> > Since you're new to the list, maybe you'd like to tell us how you know
> > absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of a doubt that we're in a
bear
> > market.  While you're at it, how long will it last?  Also, will the
small
> > caps, banks, foods, and drugs that have been in a bear market for the
last
> > year or so (2 years in the case of small caps) participate in this bear
> > market?  If oil prices stay high, will the oil stocks turn down also or
> will
> > they remain bullish?  Where will the market be when the bear market
ends?
> > What about wheat and sugar?
> >
> > Kent
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Macromnt@xxxxxxx <Macromnt@xxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 1:02 PM
> > Subject: Re: Going Long
> >
> > I am new to this list but I wander what makes someone go long in a bear
> > market. Is it an attempt to catch the bottom (it's always a risky
attempt)
> ?
> >
> > Jean Jacques Chenier
> > Global Management
> > www.trendoscil.com
>